In shielding its high growth rates Greek economy and in the coming years it is expected to contribute to the new landscape of lower interest rates which is already prescribed by her intentions ECB to accelerate the pace of easing its monetary policy.

The strong regressive tendencies displayed by inflation in the eurozone and the alarming forecasts for the course of the German economy, which is expected to slide into recession for the second year this year, create new data that force the ECB to reassess its policy so far on the pace of euro interest rate cuts.

Messages arriving from Frankfurt they predict two rate cuts by the end of the year, the first next week and the second in December. However, to the extent that the good news on the path of inflation is reconfirmed in the next period, new interest rate reductions are expected in the first months of 2025, the extent of which will depend on the course of the European economy with a focus on the recessionary landscape in the German economy .

After all, the new setting was prescribed by his statements, in the previous days, o Governor of the Bank of Greece Giannis Stournaras saying that even after the two cuts expected this year, interest rates will remain high at 3% compared to the lowest levels at which inflation lands. To the extent that forecasts are confirmed and inflation approaches 2%, the ECB will have room to further cut interest rates by 1 basis point, explain economic analysts trying to describe the new data.

What do these developments mean for the Greek economy?

Factors of the economy and executives of the financial staff speak of a particularly positive scenario that helps to continue, without interruption, the development of the Greek economy in the coming years. The boost in private consumption estimated to come from the reduction in the cost of servicing household loans and cheaper credit to businesses to finance investment will have a positive impact on the rate of growth GDPwhich according to the draft of the new budget is predicted to be 2.2% this year and 2.3% in 2025. In any case, they are expected to be a counterweight to negative effects that may arise from the stagnation of the European economy but also from potential economic turmoil in the international environment.

The landscape of lower interest rates creates, moreover, favorable conditions for the increase in industrial production, which is a requirement for the transformation of the economic model in our country and the creation of conditions for sustainable high growth rates in the future. ¨Already the developments on this front are particularly positive.

According to its latest data ELSTAT industrial production recorded an increase of 6.7% in the eight months of January – August 2024. This means that manufacturing is recovering from the crisis of the last decade, resulting in an increase in its share of GDP. According to analysts, this is a precursor to a further recovery in exports.

According to the data of ELSTAT, the biggest production increases are shown by the sectors that produce products with high added value, such as the production of chemical products and substances (8.7%), the production of pharmaceuticals (2.1%), the food industry (5.8%), the production of non-metallic mineral products (11.9%), the repair and installation of machinery and equipment (9%), the manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products (4.9%), the manufacture of electrical equipment (4.9%). Other traditional industries such as the tobacco industry (13.9%) and the distillery (7.4%) also show a significant increase.