Average price of gasoline would reach R$ 7.41 with full pass-through of high oil prices, say gas stations

Fecombustíveis (Federation of Retail Trade of Fuels and Lubricants) estimates that the average price of gasoline in the country would rise 12.7% at pumps if Petrobras decided to fully pass on the rise in oil prices after the start of the war in Ukraine.

The price of diesel would have a much higher rise, 29.4%. Even so, the fuel sector is against measures to control prices, which could jeopardize national supplies by making imports unfeasible.

Fecombustíveis’ projections consider the average prices verified last week by the ANP (National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels) research, when gasoline and diesel cost, on average, R$ 6,577 and R$ 5,668 per liter, respectively.

With an increase of 35% of pure gasoline in refineries to pass on international quotations, says the entity, the average pump price of the product would rise to R$ 7.409 per liter. The estimate assumes that the other price components —ethanol, taxes and margins— remain unchanged.

In the case of diesel, the necessary adjustment in the refineries would be 51%, taking the average pump price to R$ 7,336 per liter, also if changes in the values ​​of other price components.

President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) determined, however, the search for alternatives to try to prevent transfers without causing great damage to Petrobras.

The process has caused disagreements between different wings of the government. While Bolsonaro himself attacks the state-owned company’s pricing policy, which provides for parity with the international market, the Ministry of Mines and Energy defends subsidies, considered reckless by the Ministry of Economy.

Petrobras defends a model similar to the one adopted by the Michel Temer government during the truck drivers’ strike, in which Treasury funds are used temporarily to compensate refineries and importers for selling products cheaper than on the international market.

The state-owned company’s management argues that it cannot sell products at a loss under the State-owned Companies Act and the company’s own statute, which determines the calculation and reimbursement of losses caused by the adoption of policies that do not follow market conditions.

For the fuel sector, the damming of prices generates risks for the national market, since the national refineries are able to supply only 80% of the demand. The other 20% are imported by Petrobras and by private agents.

Importers that gained market in the country during the Temer government, however, gave up on bringing products from abroad in the current scenario. According to Abicom (Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers), its associates did not carry out operations in 2022.

The only large refinery under private operation in the country, the Mataripe Refinery, in Bahia, on Saturday (5) passed on part of the rise in international prices, with an increase of up to 19% in gasoline and up to 25% in diesel, depending on the point. Of delivery.

After the increases, it was possible to find a liter of gasoline in the state close to R$8.