By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

In May 2022, Europe solemnly announced “unyielding” against… de-dependence on Russian natural gas. 28 months later, the progress that has been made is rather… disappointing. So much so that the outgoing energy commissioner Cardi Simpsonin an unusual move, to publicly rail against countries that make morally and politically questionable choices.

“The cost of reconciliation with Russia is not measured only by the price of natural gas but also by the number of dead in Ukraine,” he said characteristically and added that “we don’t need this natural gas, it is a political choice of specific countries”.

The figures say that by March 2022, the share of European imports of Russian natural gas was at 30.5%. In 2023, there was significant progress as it dropped to 14.8%, but by March of this year the “dependency” had risen again to 16.2%, causing irritation in Brussels. Russia remains the third largest natural gas supplier to Europe behind only Norway and the US.

In September her daily income of Russia of gas exports to Europe exceed €120 million (€42 million from LNG, €78 million from pipelines). At the end of the month, 3.6 billion European euros will have financed Russian expansionism.
From the beginning of the war until today, Europe has imported Russian natural gas worth €91 billion.

Due to geographical location and connections, Brussels gave to Hungary free to continue importing Russian natural gas until it finds alternative sources. How did Budapest respond? He announced an agreement with Moscow to increase gas supplies from Gazprom in 2025. Hungary’s dependence rate exceeds 80%.

The Czech Republic – one of Ukraine’s closest allies – has increased its dependence on Russian gas in 2023 to 60%. It is typical that Prague has sent aid worth €1.3 billion to Kyiv. Russian natural gas and oil purchases exceed €7 billion.

The same situation at sea where Russian gas ships are increasing. Belgium increased its imports by 48% last year. 30% was the increase in the ports of Spain.

A month ago, the Dutch government announced that Russian ships in the port of Rotterdam have doubled to 2 per month.

Among the “addicts” and Greece which through Turkstream continues to import Russian natural gas together with natural LNG. The Russians have a 60% share of the Greek market in the first 9 months of the year, a 62% increase compared to last year. Croatia, Italy, Romania are some of the countries that have also not stopped their procurement pace.

Someone will ask why the reaction of Brussels now; The internet is full of articles and analyzes describing the situation but until now the Commission has been indifferent. And rumor has it that if Simpson hadn’t handed over her portfolio in December, she might not have been so aggressive. The first reason is that the numbers show that if Europe continues at this rate, the Russian share will increase this year.

In addition, the Russians are extremely competitive. A few days ago Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak stated that Russian LNG is 40% cheaper than American LNG.

In its announcement of the increase in Russian supplies, the Orban government celebrates the preferential prices it secured. Cheap Russian gas allowed the Czech government to increase its surplus by €1.2bn from business taxation. (In addition to the cost some countries have multi-year contracts with the Russians that were signed before the 2022 war)

The low prices of the Russians reduced the energy costs and therefore the grumbling of the governments while at the same time they contributed to the calmness of the markets.
Hence the blind eyes until now…