The effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on agriculture are being analyzed in the very short term, but they could affect the entire economy of the sector for several years.
The war could dismantle agricultural production in Ukraine, one of the main countries participating in the international food market.
The consequences will be a reduction in the supply of grains, a rise in international prices and an increase in inflation in the various economies.
The importance of Ukrainians in the production and export of wheat and maize is very important, but the country’s position on the international agricultural scene goes much further.
War can quickly destabilize production in the field, but rebuilding will take time afterwards. Russian producers will suffer the effects of sanctions, but Ukrainians will have a series of adverse factors to face in the resumption of agricultural production.
The big challenge for Ukrainian farmers now is to plant or not to plant. And the time is getting short for the start of planting.
If they plant, they will live with high costs that the war itself is increasing. Absence and high prices of fertilizers and agrochemicals. Difficulties in obtaining seeds, expensive diesel and an unstructured commercial and logistics chain.
If they don’t plant, Ukrainians will leave a vacuum in the world’s supply of agricultural products. The result for the international market will be a continuation of price increases.
Countries that are heavily dependent on products from Ukraine, such as Lebanon, Tunisia and Pakistan, among others, in addition to high prices, will no longer have a secure supplier.
The rise in prices causes widespread inflation in the world and increases the number of the population that enters the list of food insufficiency.
The importance of Ukrainians in the international market is great both in grains and in vegetable oils. The country is the world’s largest exporter of sunflower oil, placing 6.5 million tons of this product on the foreign market.
Its absence, as it is now due to trade barriers imposed by the war, also forces soy oil, produced with greater intensity in North and South America, and palm oil, with production in Asia, to rise.
Ukrainian farmers are also important in the production and export of oats, barley and rye. In these last two products, they occupy the third position in the world export market. Barley exports amount to 6 million tons per year.
Ukraine also leads the world sales of sunflower meal; is in fifth position in sorghum exports, and among the ten largest in soybean meal.
The main highlights, however, are corn exports, which total 33 million tons per year, and wheat, which reach 24 million.
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