The Stock Exchange rose 1.54% this Thursday (11), to 107,594 points. The dollar retreated 1.76%, to R$ 5.4040. Analysts attribute the results to a market adjustment to a scenario in which the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of the Precatório will be approved by the Senate and, thus, will allow the government to define the 2022 Budget.
Despite authorizing a default on the Union’s judicial debts and breaching the spending ceiling for President Jair Bolsonaro (no party) to expand Brazil’s Aid in the year he is expected to run for re-election, the measure allows investors to measure the fiscal risk of the parents.
“If we don’t have new holes [no teto de gastos] or more fiscal incidents, we can say that the real took an exaggerated hit against other emerging currencies and that the stock exchange was greatly undervalued,” says Flávio de Oliveira, head of variable income at Zahl Investimentos.
The expansion of expenses through a provisional measure, for example, is evaluated as a source of uncertainty even greater than the default on judicial debts of the Union that the PEC dos Precatórios allows.
The stock market was also boosted by the positive performance of the steel and mining sectors, in the wake of the appreciation of iron ore contracts after rumors of bankruptcy of Chinese developer Evergrande were denied, according to Rafael Ribeiro, investment analyst at Clear.
Vale rose 3.53% and was the main asset traded on the Stock Exchange on Thursday. CSN soared 7.46%, also boosted by news about China’s construction sector.
The expectation that the Central Bank will accelerate interest rate hikes to contain inflation also helped to take the pressure off the exchange market, which is now hoping that the Selic hike will make the country more attractive to international investors.
“We started to expect a more contractionary monetary policy”, says Zeller Bernardino, foreign exchange specialist at Valor Investimentos.
The director of monetary policy at the Central Bank, Bruno Serra, had already reinforced the possibility of a more aggressive fight against inflation. In an interview published on Monday (8) by Nikkei Asia, Serra stated that the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) may raise the Selic rate by another 1.5 percentage points in December.
Brent oil, world reference, retreated 0.02%, to US$ 82.59 (R$ 447.51). Petrobras preferred shares rose 0.08%.
The rise of the Ibovespa this Friday also had the encouragement of investors with a battery of positive quarterly balance sheets.
Azul soared 9.83% after the company showed strong third-quarter revenue and adopted a positive tone for 2022 on its balance sheet conference call.
Totvs advanced 3.59% after reporting an increase in third-quarter profit, with rising revenues linked to financial technology and business performance offsetting the effects of higher expenses. The company also announced an investment plan of R$300 million in startups.
Via (VIIA3) shares, however, fell 12.48% this Thursday (11), leading the declines on the Stock Exchange.
The negative performance of the shares of the owner of the brands Casas Bahia and Pontofrio occurred after the company reported a net loss of R$ 638 million in the third quarter, under the impact of revisions in provisions generated by labor claims.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones fell 0.445. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose 0.06% and 0.52%, respectively.
with Reuters
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