Petrobras summit sees no deadline to lower fuels, despite pressure from Bolsonaro

Despite the pressure publicly exerted by President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), the Petrobras leadership has said internally that there is no deadline for lowering fuel prices, even with a drop in oil prices.

To people close to him, the president of the state-owned company, General Joaquim Silva e Luna, says that the decision to review the mega-increase given by Petrobras in gasoline and diesel depends on the behavior of the market. The account will depend on the price of a barrel of oil, the exchange rate and the volume of fuel supplied by importers to the local market.

Prices were unchanged since January 12, after almost two months of damming the transfer of the basic input, oil.

The military also assesses that the scenario regarding the price of oil is unstable, and that the changes that have occurred are conjunctural and not structural.

This Thursday (17), for example, oil prices rose 6% after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said the market could lose three million barrels per day (bpd) of oil. and Russian products from next month.

Brent crude futures were up US$5.85 (R$29.9) or 5.97% to be quoted at US$103.87 (R$532.6) a barrel at 9:25 am (Brasilia time). WTI was up $5.48 (BRL 28.1), or 5.77%, at $100.52 (BRL 515.4) a barrel.

Both contracts tumbled the previous day, following an unexpected jump in US crude inventories and signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks.

Oil, which was already on the rise due to the pandemic – which made the world’s largest producers review their production projections downwards – took a new boost with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. Both are major producers – Russia for oil and Ukraine for natural gas.

On Tuesday (15), the barrel of oil dropped below US$ 100. On the same day, Bolsonaro said that “with all certainty” Petrobras would reduce the price of fuel.

“We are hearing that in recent days the price of oil abroad has dropped a lot. We expect Petrobras to follow the price drop abroad. It will certainly do that there”, he said, during a ceremony at the Planalto Palace.

The president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), thickened Bolsonaro’s statements, reinforcing the pressure for the state-owned company to lower prices.

“It’s just that we have oil going down and the dollar is down, and the demand is: will Petrobras now lower fuel? Diesel oil is cheaper abroad than here. Are we going to have a price reduction, or is it just like a invasion, which advances, advances, and does not retreat?”

Asked whether the president of Petrobras, Joaquim Silva e Luna, was doing well, Lira declined to comment. “I don’t have the internal view of Petrobras, I don’t have the internal relationship with Petrobras. The only criticism I made was that Petrobras really didn’t need to increase the size that it did all at once”, she said.

“The barrel goes up, we increase, the barrel goes down, we don’t go down? It’s important that Petrobras pull back the price and the increase it gave, because the dollar is falling and the barrel is falling”, he added. “These are the two components that make up Petrobras’ price policy.”

Contrary to what the president of the Chamber says, Petrobras has been implementing a policy that does not immediately transfer the increase in input to local fuel prices (derived from oil).

Abicom, an association that represents oil importers responsible for supplying 40% of the local market, estimates that the mismatch between international oil prices and the prices practiced by Petrobras has an average lag (downward) of up to 30%. In diesel, this difference would reach 40%.

This situation can lead importers to give up on serving the market to avoid losses in competitiveness with Petrobras’ prices, which would lead to a shortage, especially in the North and Northeast regions.

Aides to Silva and Luna say that, to avoid shortages, the president of Petrobras had no way out and authorized the readjustment that has been criticized by the government.

Internally, high-ranking military officers began an operation in the Planalto to try to contain the frying of Silva and Luna. Although he denies it, the vice president, Hamilton Mourão, led the conversations. The Minister of Mines and Energy, Bento Albuquerque, also took the field.

This Tuesday (17), the ideological military wing of Planalto began a new wave of criticism after public statements by Silva and Luna that the company follows its pricing policy.

Bolsonaro’s political advisers believe that this stance does not collaborate with the speech of the president, who is going to run for reelection and wants to show that he tried to do everything possible to prevent Brazilians from paying so dearly for fuel, items that weigh heavily in the calculation of inflation, which continues to rise this year.

Silva e Luna is the second president of Petrobras who, under Bolsonaro, has faced criticism due to high prices. Roberto Castello Branco left office after a confrontation with Bolsonaro who tried to curb prices. Silva e Luna has already warned that he will not step down.