Bolsonaro allies evaluate ‘hide’ Guedes in the campaign

Allies of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) assess that the policies defended by Minister Paulo Guedes (Economy) can remove votes from the candidate for reelection in 2022 and defend “hide” the head of the economic team during the campaign.

In addition, they fear controversial statements by the minister, such as when he recently said that there are more iPhones in Brazil than the population. More pessimistic palaces say they believe that inflation, in general, will not subside to the point of making a positive difference in people’s lives.

The discussion is raised at a time of unknowns around the minister when it comes to elections. According to reports, Bolsonaro and Guedes have yet to talk about how the minister will participate in the campaign.

The uncertainty has kept Guedes away from public debates alongside economic advisors of other pre-candidates on the policies to be adopted by the country in the next four years.

Allies of the minister heard by the sheet recognize the uncertainties, but minimize the minister’s absence in the debates, saying that the platform defended by Guedes is already known. Reforms, reducing the size of the State, privatization and concessions to the private sector are on the agenda.

In addition, they mention that the minister continues to have an active participation in the daily life of the government and has appeared at events alongside Bolsonaro in Brasilia, such as the launch of the Annual Fertilizer Plan, an agenda of the Ministry of Agriculture.

Guedes’ departure from the president’s campaign is not unanimous among Bolsonaro’s closest allies.

There are those who compare Guedes with former president Dilma Rousseff (PT) in the PT campaign of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva: the more he tries to hide, the more his opponents will exploit.

Campaign members confirm that the details about Guedes’s eventual more direct participation in the PL’s advertisements, which begin in June, have not yet been discussed.

But those who advocate that the chief executive “take over” the Minister of Economy say that even if Guedes does not appear at election time or in campaign material as often as in 2018, he will be present for his economic policy.

Recently, in the midst of discussions about rising fuel prices, Bolsonaro criticized Petrobras, but he again said that, for any other measure to lower the price of gasoline, he would first need to hear from Guedes — whom he referred to as his trusted minister.

Despite the public demonstrations of support, in recent years the two have clashed many times. Bolsonaro defends corporatism, such as the military, for example, and measures that challenge fiscal adjustment.

The Economy Minister mentions to allies that the president’s support for the liberal agenda was once more than 90% and today barely exceeds 50%.

Throughout the entire term, the president did not actively participate in the defense of reforms (such as the Social Security) and even postponed sending others (such as the administrative one) for fear of popular reaction.

In addition, Guedes often ends up defending his position practically alone – and accumulates wear and tear with his own team in the midst of discussions. The biggest example of this was the stampede of members of the Ministry of Economy last year amid the dribbling of the spending ceiling to accommodate the payment of precatories and an Auxílio Brasil of at least R$400 (Guedes was against it initially, but ended up giving in) .

The Economy Minister has resisted internal disagreements and defended that abandoning the liberal agenda would be a shot in the foot for Bolsonaro – as it would drive votes away instead of attracting.

Guedes continues to show admiration for Bolsonaro and says he will always be on the side of “the center-right” in clashes with the left. The problems accumulated during the term, however, made the minister create, since the end of last year, a kind of demand to evaluate its eventual continuity. Similar doubts are raised even by members of Bolsonaro’s campaign.

The minister has signaled that he needs to feel the existence of support for the liberal agenda in order to continue alongside the chief, putting his permanence in doubt if he feels that his proposals will be left aside.

The sentiment, expressed to allies some time ago, was expressed in an interview with TV Jovem Pan News last month. When asked if he was ready for another four years of government, Guedes replied that it depended on feeling enthusiastic.

“That’s what I say about enthusiasm. If you have the belief inside [bate no peito], if you see that this alliance of conservatives and liberals is following, you are excited. Now, if it’s just a conservative government and it doesn’t have … “, he said, without completing the sentence.

“I believe in President Bolsonaro, I think he wants the path to prosperity. Now, there are attractions, there are environments, there are people who want to divert him, there are people who think that state-owned companies are good, that Correios, Casa da Moeda, Petrobras have to stay with the government,” he said. “If you switch from left-wing leadership to right-wing leadership, we know the historical experiences and what will happen,” he said.