Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Masks that fall and the death of old people in the epidemic that has not ended

Everyone was wearing a mask at the crowded bakery on Friday afternoon (18) in Higienópolis, a wealthy neighborhood in downtown São Paulo. It was also like that in the neighboring neighborhood of Santa Cecília, in the shopping mall frequented by the elderly from the small middle class and by LGBTQIA+ and hipster people from the region.

On social networks, close acquaintances publish photos of the moment “two years later”, of the return of meetings, lunches and dinners with large groups. The diarist says that in Carapicuíba, a city on the outskirts of São Paulo, “the people there” rarely wear a mask since Christmas, except on buses and trains.

In both Brazil and São Paulo, the death toll from Covid per day (395) is still higher than it was between October 2021 and the end of January 2022. But people have been managing a kind of end to the epidemic for months. that didn’t finish. It doesn’t matter much what the government says or does, which in São Paulo has just released masks in closed places. It doesn’t matter much, but it does. Indoor mask and ventilation improvements would help contain the number of casualties. The disease is dangerous and leaves sequelae even in “mild” cases. We need to take care of the vulnerable.

During the onomicron, the profile of deaths changed, which weighed even more on the elderly and sick. In the last four weeks, 85% of Covid deaths were 60 years old or older (in the entire epidemic, 68%) in the state of São Paulo. About 95% of the dead were over 60 years old or had a comorbidity, mostly heart disease or diabetes.

The probability of a healthy and young vaccinated person dying from Covid is small, although it is not yet possible to calculate the risk, as the São Paulo government has not released data on deaths and vaccination by age. With desolation, one hears more people talking resignedly, fatalistically or indifferently about the death of the old and sick.

In the state of São Paulo, among people aged 70 and over, one in 40 died of Covid. It is imprecise, but it is of that order, a massacre. The population statistics are old and imprecise and there is underreporting of deaths.

There are fatalisms and faits accompli, it should be noted: the new habit of the population and politicians who want to go to election campaigns decreeing the end of the epidemic or the mask.

The change in mood was noticeable at the turn of the year. It was evident even when the death toll had returned to nearly 900 a day in Brazil in mid-February. For economic, physical, psychological or whatever, the bulk of society decided to move forward, even with risks and signs of fear, who knows about structural changes. At least a quarter of passengers have not yet returned to public transport in greater São Paulo (compared to 2019 or 2018).

It is true that there was some reasonable reaction to the advance of the omicron. In February, the average number of vaccine doses applied per day was 1.16 million, the highest since October (in December, the average was only 701,000 per day).

In Brazil, more than 74% of the population received at least two doses (84% in São Paulo). It’s a rate equal to Germany’s, higher than the United Kingdom’s, and much higher than the shame of the United States.

The BA.2 omicron spreads across Europe. It has been circulating in Brazil since the end of January. There is no way to predict whether it will do damage, say scientists. Winter is a good season for the spread of the virus, but it is about three months away. Until then, however, it may be that immunity, by vaccine or infection, has diminished. In Brazil, only 40% of people took dose 3 (54% in São Paulo). Dose 4 should be given to the elderly. There is still time to save lives.