“The golden age of America is starting now.” This was proclaimed by Donald Trump on January 20, during his first speech at the White House. In the six weeks of that day, investors and economists have begun to worry that there is a less optimistic development – that his arrival in the White House is causing and coinciding with a period of weakness for the US economy, as the Economist reports.

Currently, such concerns They are imprinted on financial surveys and not in themselves financial datawhich maintain the dynamics recorded by last year.

The Americans, however, are more pessimistic. The consumer climate index of the University of Michigan, which is closely monitored, “sank” in February at the lowest level since 2023.

The consumer expectations of the Conference Board Business Research Organization has recorded a similar sharp decline last month, retreating to a level that indicates a forthcoming shrinking economy.

US citizens seem to be very concerned about the possible recovery of inflation, a concern that comes from Mr Trump’s “appetite” to impose duties. Its most recent commitment is that from March 4 it will impose a 25% duties on imports of goods from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% on imports from China.

These concerns may have already begun to hit consumers’ behavior. Retail sales in the US in January were unexpectedly weakwith consumer spending reporting a 0.5% reduction in real terms compared to one month earlier, which is the largest monthly decline in almost four years.

Small “cracks” are also observed in the labor market: Initial applications for unemployment benefits increased to 242,000 last week, the highest number since October 2024.

Investors see this gloomy climate. The Stock Exchange has risen after Trump’s electoral victory, pushing for its agenda to deregulate and reduce taxes. Recently, however, The market recorded a fallfalling by 2% the previous month.

A high frequency index for GDP growth, published by the Federal Reserve branch in Atlanta, also suggests that in the first quarter of 2025 the economy shrunk by 1.5%, abruptly overturning the climate of just a few weeks earlier. (Since it is still early for the financial data, the assessment of GDP is currently extremely inaccurate and variable).

But the above is not only due to Mr Trump. Obviously, the economic impact of politicians that followedly barely could have been felt. The economy is also influenced by many other factors, not only by the financial program of the White House tenant.

OR real estatea decisive factor in the health of the economy is under pressure due to high interest rates. In January, pending housing sales declined to the lowest level since 2001, the year in which the National Real Estate Association began collecting relevant data.

Another factor that “blurs” the findings of the research is policy: The respondents identified as Democrats are more pessimistic than Republicans who see them all more positively, a picture that has been fully reversed compared to the time in power Joe Biden was in power.

In addition to the above indications, there are some factors that stand out, and mainly suggest that in the coming months the concerns will intensify.

Even though Trump postponed the imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as he did a month ago, he seems determined to actually increase the duties on friends and enemies – demonstrating a more aggressive mood to intensify protectionism in relation to his first term in the presidency.

And as price rise will hurt consumption and processing, His duties could reduce the growth rate by 0.5% of America, according to Morgan Stanley analysts.

Commercial policy uncertainty have also risen, which means that businesses may limit their investment.

Many investors continue to hope that Mr Trump will reduce taxes and eliminate bureaucracy. However, the risk balance seems to change.

The budget plan approved by Republicans in the House of Representatives on 25 February will extend most of the tax relief implemented by Mr Trump in 2017, although it does not contain many details. This fiscal policy will maintain the huge US deficit – ranging from about 7% of GDP – without providing a particular boost to the economy.

In the meantime, the efforts of the Ilon Musk and the government efficiency service to limit the size of the public sector create a chaotic climate. The Minutes Shrinking Movements See to bring up little savings but at the same time extensive problems in the operation of government organizations dealing with the management of national parks to the provision of social services.

Some broader trends recorded may also adversely affect Trump’s goals. Consumers have now exhausted the money they had saved during the Covid-19 pandemic, so they may need to start saving more consciously, which will also reduce consumer spending.

In addition, the incredibly high valuations of US companies’ shares, especially the technological giants that have been ejected in recent years, are vulnerable to corrections – which could further harm the consumer and business climate.

Finally, the real estate market will remain under pressure while mortgage interest rates flirt with 7%, which is not far from the highs of the last two decades.

Regardless of who is in power, all of the above factors foresaw slower growth. But having an aggressive and alienated advocate of protectionism in the White House, deceleration can come earlier and be more intense.