The US federal bank decision to keep its interest rates unchanged – but also easy to misinterpret. The message “There is nothing worthy of attention, let’s go below”, clearly was not the pursuit.

No matter how much the central bank does not want to say it, the current US government is making its already difficult job even more difficult. The risk of a severe downturn in the US is increasing, and the Fed cannot do much to prevent it.

Until recently, Federal Reserve’s proclaimed plan for a mild landing – such a gradual return of inflation to the goal of 2% without increasing unemployment – still seemed feasible, although inflation has proven more persistent than expected and further interest cuts would probably be delayed.

Suddenly, however, the prospects of inflation have deteriorated – not because monetary policy is now very relaxed and the overall demand is very high, but because the Trump government war could trigger prices by disturbing the offer. So the new threat is stagnation, and the Fed does not have the “weapons” to deal with it.

The “drug” to tackle excess demand is to tighten monetary policy. And this equation is that causes a “headache” in the central bank. Because monetary policy does not have the cure for inflation that causes a shock on the offer.

If the US government insists on maintaining the duties imposed and implementing the endangered, it will do just that, increase the cost of producers’ inputs, causing immediate rise in consumer prices, and persuade workers and investors to expect further increase in inflation.

When a central bank combats inflation by offering by increasing interest rates, the result is a reduction in production and lower than maximum employment.

In short, the fight against stagnation through monetary policy is extremely costly. And under such circumstances, the dual “mission” of the Fed – prices and maximum employment – is simply impossible.

Whatever the Fed is found to open these fears openly is understandable. To show that it criticizes the government’s policies would exacerbate the situation, provoking an “answer” that would call into question its independence.

At a press conference on Wednesday, Fed President Jerome Powell emphasized the uncertainty and expressed hope that any cessation of inflation will be (despite the unfortunate associations).

Similarly, the summary of the financial forecasts of the Fed – the so -called dot plot – does not provide for neither a persistent rise in inflation nor a recession of the economy.

But don’t take these cash forecasts. It is evident that the duties are already pushing prices. Inflation expectations have increased. And a recent Fed economists’ survey points out the possibility of persistent upward pressures.

If the White House changes course, these effects will be truly transient. But if he goes further and keeps his promise to impose “reciprocal and sectoral duties” on all imported products at the beginning of next month, attention.

The turmoil that hit the stock market last month may be in the face of what will happen if investors are convinced that a large -scale trade war has begun.

In this case, do not imagine that the Fed can provide a helping hand. It is almost in the same position as everyone else – hopes for the unexpected, that is, this irrational movement of “self -injury” can still be prevented.

* The Editorial Board of Bloomberg Opinion publishes views of editors dealing with a wide range of national and global issues.