By Vangelis Dourakis

The “duty war”, launched by US President Donald Trump, is hitting key – in the first phase – domestic small and large producers of agricultural and dairy products exporting to the United States. “Lucky” stand by specific Greek companies that have factories on the other side of the Atlantic. The domestic economy as a whole, however, may accept stroke In the next stage with a “brake” in growth rates and a new “wave” of precision.

But let’s take them from the beginning: The domestic agri -food sector, is the first to accept the consequences as it represents 31% of Greek exports to the US. Overall, the value of our country’s exports to the United States stood at € 2,411 billion in 2024, based on data from the Panhellenic Exporters Association (PSE), with the US constituting the fifth largest export destination for Greek products. In fact, the balance was in surplus with imports of US products stood at € 2.16 billion.

Greek products affected by Trump duties

Imposing duties, therefore, initially affects products such as olive oil, table olives, dairy products, especially feta, wine, and even peach compote, which constitute the top Greek in this market.

These products are directly at risk of loss of their competitiveness in the US, as it is difficult to absorb duties of such magnitude from the market ‘rings’ before Greek products reach US shelves.

In other words, domestic products will now be more expensive for Americans and therefore less competitive, despite any efforts that may be made by Greek companies and representatives – distributors of Greek products in the US to “cover” part of the tariff burden.

This will practically mean Shrinking the demand for Greek agri -foodas well as industrial, products in the United States and therefore Reduction of our country’s exports to the American continent, causing “headaches” in domestic businesses.

The “tsunami” caused by Trump duties

But this “headache” is not excluded to become even greater as the “tsunami” caused by Donald Trump’s “Strategy” It is likely to activate a “nightmarish” scenario: Imposing EU duties. it fastened to the severity of Germanywhich exports to the US goods worth 157.7 billion euros, the Italy with exports worth 67.3 billion euros and the France which exported 43.9 billion euros, with these three countries having almost 50% of EU exports. to the US (elements 2023).

If their exports to the US are dramatically shrinking because their products will become less competitive on the American continent, then Consumer purchasing power will be limited equally in these European markets. And this is because many areas of their economy may have much lower revenue.

Germany, Italy and France, however, constitute at the same time Basic Commercial Partners of Greece Within the EU, with our country to extracts almost 65% of its products to the member countries of the European Union.

So if their economies are weakened then our country maybe to lose large shares from basic customers of its products.

Whatever the case, a “domino” phenomenon that will bring it up to market operation as we knew it to date.

The dangerous development and the positive element

After all, the impact of duties are not limited to financial Level for our country and other Europeans, but in the long run, they extend to social: A possible reduction in exports will bring about Income losses to Greek producers and businesses active in agri -food – and not only – short -term or long -term sector.

This in turn may lead to Reduction of employmentespecially in rural areas, further exacerbating the position of already burdened local economies.

With ‘duty war’ having begun, things can get even more dangerous turn If the EU on its part also responds with measurescorresponding to US duties.

Then New inflationary pressures should be considered inevitable In agri -food products, with large “losers” consumers themselves, as will be negatively affected and growth Both Greece and the eurozone in general.

If at present one can distinguish something positive within this ‘cloudy landscape’ is The rapid decline in international oil and gas prices.

A trend that – if and if it continues – will also reduce prices both in retail sale of fuelas well as in electricity while also limiting production costs.