Donald Trump insists that markets will be “jumping” as a result of his economic policy, despite yesterday’s collapse of US shares – but the US bank giant JP Morgan disagrees.

The largest US bank now gives 60% of the world’s economy to slip into recession as a result of the “liberation day” proclaimed by Trump on Wednesday, announcing sweeping duties to all US trade partners across the globe.

Investment bank analysts say that if the policies implemented by the Trump government are maintained “they will probably lead the US and possibly the world economy in recession this year”.

In a note to investment bank customers, which according to Bloomberg is entitled “Blood will be spilled”, JP Morgan’s leading economist Brus Kasman says that due to Trump duties, the chances of recession increased by 20% – to 60% from 40% previously.

He also described the duties the largest tax hike for US households and US businesses since 1968.

“The result of this tax increase is likely to be enlarged – due to retaliation, the slide of the US business climate and supply chains problems,” Kasman adds.

JP Morgan economist points out that duties are a “essential macroeconomic shock”.