““Archbishop” President Donald Trump has been saying for weeks that at least one trade agreement is imminent with one of the dozens of countries in active negotiations with the United States to avoid imposing duties. So where is this agreement; ” The CNN wonders in its analysis.

On Sunday, at the Air Force One, Trump said that trade agreements could be announced this week. He also said it last week. And the previous week.

At the same time, Trump continued to mitigate expectations, saying that foreign countries – both friends and enemies – have been stealing the United States for years, and that trade agreements will only arise when he agrees on terms that will benefit Americans. The ball is on its own stadium, not on their own, Trump argues.

“We are negotiating with many countries, but in the end I will set my own agreements, because I define the agreement, they do not define this agreement, I define the agreement,” he told reporters on Sunday. “This is not a big deal to be signed – in some cases we will sign them, but we do not need to sign them. I will set the agreement, I will define the duties. “

The profession of a possible agreement – the US government has stated that India, Japan and South Korea are the countries that are more likely to end up in a trade agreement with the US – has restored confidence in the US financial markets and has enhanced some of its hopes.

But as weeks pass without any agreement being visible, the Trump government is in danger of causing serious economic damage that could quickly become a recession in the US and the world economy. America’s offensive trade war has already sent the US economy to a reverse course. Last week’s quarterly report on the gross domestic product, the wider US economy, showed America’s first shrinkage since early 2022, as an otherwise healthy economy was slowed by companies that accumulate goods to prevent duties.

And that was the first quarter – Before the most aggressive commercial policy comes into force.

The slow pace of achievement of any kind of compromise in trade does not foresee anything good for the final … award: a diplomatic recession with China. With at least 145% duties in Chinese imports and 125% retaliation from China to US products, trade with one of America’s major economic partners has almost stopped.

This means that America is just a few days away from supply chain disorders, similar to a pandemic, which could lead to higher prices and empty store shelves.

There is no trade agreement on the horizon

Last month Trump said in an interview with Time that he already had concluded 200 commercial agreementslater clarifying that they will be completed soon. Government officials have said they are in advanced trade negotiations with more than twelve countries.

Despite the government’s rhetoric that it is in advanced trade negotiations with more than twelve countries, trade agreements actually need an important time – frequent years – to complete. They usually include incredibly complex agreements, which delve deeper into the slightest details of various goods and non -tariff barriers. They often include important political parameters, as various parties seek to protect voters with special interests.

On the contrary, any “agreement” signs the Trump government – whenever this happens – almost certainly looks more like a Memorandum of Understanding. This can lead to lower duties on products of a particular country in the near future, but it will probably not do much that are equivalent to a substantial financial victory for some time.

This is because Trump set a strict deadline for all this: the “payroll” duties that came into force on April 7 and suspended for 90 days on April 9, affecting dozens of countries. Thus, the clock expires on July 8 – when imposing duties up to 50% on dozens of nations is going to come back into force.

“The 90 -day discharge of duties, which has now exceeded about 25%, provides some time for formal commercial discussions that take months, if not years, to conclude a trade agreement,” said Jacob Jensen, a US -based commercial policy analyst.

“There is a significant difference if these agreements are formal, written trade agreements and not oral commitments to buy more US products, as one case has long -term financial impacts and the other may be ignored in the future.”

Trump has stated that he will not extend the suspension of duties for the second time – and, in fact, he may act earlier to restore certain duties to countries with which his government cannot reach an agreement, perhaps in a few weeks.

‘It will be difficult for the US trademark to negotiate potentially 100 separate commercial agreements Within 90 days, which means that President Trump should soon determine whether the duties will be restored or delayed further, “Jensen said.

And even if agreements are finally completed, there is no guarantee that Trump will adhere to them. For example, Trump, during his first term, played a decisive role in the negotiation of the USMCA Free Trade Agreement, Canada and Mexico, just to abandon it during his second term, imposing a 25% recurring duty on certain Mexican and Canadian products. And by imposing significant duties on almost all goods entering the United States, Trump also shook a number of existing trade agreements with allies.

China is the real problem

Regardless of how many commercial partners are concluded by the United States, what really matters is China. And that seems to lead nowhere.

The historically high duty in China has essentially stopped any trade between the two countries, Trump has repeatedly stated. The number of cargo ships directed by China to the United States decreased by 60% in April, according to Flexport, a logistics and transport company. Jpmorgan estimates that Chinese imports in the United States will decrease up to 80% until the second half of the year.

US consumers should expect disorders similar to pandemic, as the goods stored before the entry into force of duties begin to run out roughly next week, including higher prices, deficiencies and empty shelves.

Finance Minister Scott Bessed has repeatedly stated that the high duty in China is “unsustainable” and Trump also said he expects the duty to decline. But it should be significantly reduced – by more than half – to resume any real trade, experts say. But even then, financial damage will have been done – and it will take weeks or even months before US shelves are replenished.

Despite the ever -increasing warnings and economic turmoil, the two countries seem to be not intellectual close to an agreement. China has repeatedly denied Trump’s statements that they are in talks and the two sides have insisted, saying that significant concessions will be needed to start negotiations. Bessed said they could take two to three years to smooth trade with China.

However, some signs show cracks formed on the wall between countries. China said last week that it is “currently evaluating” the United States’ proposals to launch trade talks, in a distinctive change of tone that could open the door to negotiations. And Trump reiterated last week that duties to Chinese imports to the United States would eventually decline.

“At some point, I’ll reduce them, because otherwise you could never do jobs with them,” He said in an interview with NBC, which was filmed on Friday. “They really want to do jobs … Their economy is collapsing.”