US President Donald Trump once again surprised markets with a sudden announcement on Friday that it will increase steel import duties from 25% to 50% on Wednesday.

But while the inflationary impact on US domestic prices is expected to be serious, the impact on Europe will be more mixed, according to analysts – with some buyers and manufacturers being able to benefit from the lowest prices.

“This was an absolute surprise. Already steel prices in the US are higher than anywhere else, and is a clean importer that needs huge tumors. All that does this is to raise prices there, “Josh Spoores, head of steel analyst at CRU, told CNBC on Monday.

Canada and Mexico are the largest steel exporters to the US, while other important sources are Brazil, South Korea and Germany.

The latest duties could see the steel to redirect to other markets, such as Europe, SPOOES said, exerting a downward pressure on prices.

“Some manufacturers in Europe can do it better by exporting them to the US as prices are increasing there,” he continued. “Cars, construction products and devices are products that will feel the impact,” he said.

In addition, he said that, in Europe, steel buyers are potentially winning.

But not all companies are expected to benefit.

Rella Suskin, Morningstar’s stock analyst, noted in comments sent by email that German BMW
It had separated the expected effects of the various duties on its results for 2024 and pointed out a negative effect – at a height of a “high three -digit amount” – from the existing 25% of steel and aluminum duties.

BMW’s shares declined by 1.8% in Monday’s first afternoon transactions, with the wider European car industry fell by 1.8%.

The Danish Wind Energy Development Company Orsted could also be negatively affected, Citi analysts, led by Jenny Ping in a note to customers, because it does not have a local offshore wind turbine supply chain.

Eroding steel profit margins

Trump’s latest moves will have a significant impact on European steelmaking – which is still plagued by the 25% duty imposed in March – according to Kaye Ayub, head of price analysis and forecasts at the United Kingdom’s Member International steel consultation company.

“The demand for steel is already low throughout Europe, undermining the prices and profit margins of domestic steelmakers. This has forced many producers to reduce production and close factories as they struggle to compete with low -cost steel imports produced in countries where production costs are much lower, “Ayub said.

Reactions from the EU

The European Union strongly criticized Trump’s announcement over the weekend, threatening countermeasures and arguing that the decision “adds further uncertainty to the global economy and increases costs for consumers and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic”.

Any restriction of 3.89 million metric tones of steel produced in the EU and exported to the US due to trade barriers “likely to aggravate over -supply in Europe, exerting increased downward pressure on sales prices,” Ayub noted.

He added that some quantities of low -cost Asian steel origin for the US will be diverted to Europe. “Even with the EU and the United Kingdom’s trade defense measures, this could undermine the efforts of domestic producers to maintain their profitability,” he said.

“On the contrary, American steelworkers may benefit from the highest sales prices if further increases are now reported, even if the cost is increasing for American manufacturers and is stabbing inflation,” Ayub said.

Uncertainty in the UK

It remains unclear what the last sharing of the United Kingdom could mean by the market for the United Kingdom, which announced the outline of a trade agreement with the US in May, but has not yet secured an exception to steel duties.

Gareth Styl, head of the UK Steel industrial body, said in a statement that domestic steel companies “are afraid that orders will now be canceled, some of which are likely to be transferred to the other side of the Atlantic.”

“Overall, Trub’s latest announcement adds to the growing headache for almost all businesses as a result of unstable commercial policy,” Cru’s Josh Spoores said.

“These duties are at such a high level and in the US will affect a huge community of manufacturers that make a significant contribution to GDP and employment, so there will be pressure on this issue,” Spoores told CNBC.