Datafolha shows worsening expectations for inflation, unemployment and purchasing power

The perception of Brazilians in relation to important indicators of the economy has deteriorated, according to data from Datafolha. The scenario outlined by most is one of more inflation, loss of salary purchasing power and risk of unemployment.

The Datafolha poll was conducted with 2,556 voters in 181 cities across the country, on Tuesday (22) and Wednesday (23). The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. Compared to the survey carried out in December last year, there was a turnaround for the worse in the results.

In the case of inflation, there was a strong increase in the number of Brazilians expecting a rise. In this survey, 74% of respondents say they believe that the famine will increase in the coming months. In December, this contingent was 46%.

The current scenario is close to that identified at the peak of the pandemic, in December 2020 and March 2021, when respectively 74% and 77% of respondents estimated that inflation would increase.

At that time, food prices began to reflect more strongly the rise in the price of raw materials, such as soybeans and corn, and the increase in the costs of inputs and industrial products was also strong due to the rupture of supply chains in global level.

The IPCA-15 of March, monthly preview of the official inflation index, released on Friday (25th), corroborates the perspective that the coming months tend to see an increase in inflation.

The indicator came well above projections. It stood at 0.95%, the highest level since March 2015. Analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency had expected an increase of 0.85%.

The result was driven by an increase in food prices, an effect of the drought that damaged the last crop. But it also began to reflect part of the sharp rise in fuel prices, caused by the increase in the barrel of oil in the wake of the effects of the war in Ukraine.

The contingent that predicts a loss in purchasing power also became a majority.

In December, 36% believed that purchasing power would be preserved, while 35% expected an improvement. A smaller contingent, 25%, projected that there would be a reduction in purchasing power.

March’s Datafolha identifies a reversal. The portion that expects an improvement in purchasing power dropped to 27%, and 29% believe it will remain as it is. On the other hand, 40% project a loss of purchasing power. The level is similar to that seen in August and September of last year, when indicators showed that Brazilians’ income was at a historically depressed level.

In the quarter up to October 2021, the real average income received by employed workers was estimated at R$ 2,449 per month — the lowest value of all quarters in the series started in 2012 in the IBGE’s Pnad Continua (National Survey by Continuous Household Sample) from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

Also noteworthy is the sudden worsening of perceptions about the future of employment.

In December, the contingent that predicted a rise in unemployment came to a level with the portion that projected an improvement in the supply of jobs, 35% each. In the March Datafolha, however, 50% project a worsening in the job market and 20% believe that there may be improvement. This is another trend reversal.

The unemployment rate touched 15% in the quarter ended in March 2021, as a result of the outbreak of the pandemic. That same March, pessimism about the economy hit a record in the Datafolha series, with two out of three Brazilians predicting a worsening scenario. There was a peak, 79%, predicting a worsening in the number of vacancies.

Subsequently, IBGE releases show a progressive reduction in unemployment. With vaccination and the progressive return of face-to-face activities, the unemployment rate dropped to 11.1% in the fourth quarter of 2021. In the quarter ended in January this year, in turn, it was 11.2%.

As there is a delay in the disclosure of official data, it will be necessary to wait for the next surveys on the labor market to identify whether there was a reversal in hiring that explains the sudden pessimism.