CAC 40: The market keeps its cool

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Trump pressed the red button. Without waiting for the end of the two -week period he gave himself to decide on a direct military intervention in Iran, the American president ordered targeted strikes on the three main Iranian nuclear sites. Surgical by their precision, but massive by their power, these strikes targeted in particular the Fordo site, at the heart of the nuclear issues of the mullahs regime. This uranium enrichment site, built nearly 100 meters underground in a mountainous region, was particularly difficult to reach.

The market thus addresses the week which opens with a major question: is the generalized conflagration in the Middle East now inevitable? For the moment, the barrel of crude firms without flambe, at $ 75 per unit for the Texan reference (WTI).

The CAC 40 finished a nervous and anxious week with a rebound of 0.48% on Friday. Rebound that should not hide the little engaging pace of the corresponding candle.

In the statistical chapter on Friday, the operators took note of a surprise drop in the manufacturing index of the Fed of Philadelphia (Philly Fed), at -1.0.

On the values ​​side, Eutelsat flambé by 30.8% after announcing a massive capital increase of 1.35 billion euros. A financial intermediary believes that open sellers may have unlocking their positions after this announcement. By effect of sectoral mimicry, its earned 6.63%. In terms of the smallest values, the Lighton AI specialist jumped 26% after having signed a contract with an Arianegroup subsidiary.

On the other side of the Atlantic, Wall Street reopened Friday after a holiday Thursday. The main shares on shares finished the session in dispersed order, the Dow Jones managing to grab 0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite contracting by 0.51%. The S & P500, a reference barometer of appetite for the risk in the eyes of fund managers, symbolically lost 0.22% to 5,967 points, the 6,000 psychological points starting to constitute a level of graphic resistance.

A point on the other asset classes at risk: around 8:00 am this morning on the exchange market, the single currency was treated at a level close to $ 1,1490. The barrel of WTI, one of the barometers of appetite for the risk on the financial markets, was exchanged around $ 75.30. THE Treasuries 10 Yearsyield of federal sovereign bonds due to 10 years, was negotiated slightly above 4.39%. As for the Vix, it was worth 20.62 at the last fence of the S&P500.

At the macroeconomic agenda this Monday, to follow the first estimates of economic activity barometers in the euro zone (PMI) at 10:00 am.

Key graphics elements

The gradual cap under the 7,900 points has suddenly turned into intense volatility. In one session Friday, May 23, the Parisian flagship index broke the Dynamics of the spring rally by breaking the mobile average at 20 days (in dark blue), the difference compared to the mobile average at 50 days (in orange) has taken up strongly.

The 7,900 points are reinforced in their status of graphic resistance, even though the dynamics of the relative force index invite caution. Indeed the RSI (Relative Strenght Index) Adopt a persistent lowering bias since May 13. The tricolor flagship index is now in a glaring situation of incapacity for creations of new heights.

First alert Thursday, June 12 with a metal gap in session. Second the next day with a new gap, filled in the session too. The short -term configuration is gradually weakened.

FORECAST

In view of the key graphic factors that we have mentioned, our opinion is negative on the CAC 40 index in the short term.

This downward scenario is valid as long as the CAC 40 rating index below resistance at 7700.00 points.

Hourly data graphics

Daily data graphics