Middle East tensions almost always have a predictable impact on oil prices – cause rise as investors are afraid of offering restrictions

The Middle East is the most important oil -producing region of the world and one of the main nodes of marine commercial activity.

Its marine passages are critical arteries for oil tankers, as well as for ships of goods and industrial products.

Any escalation in the area has an immediate and predictable effect on oil prices by triggering increases as markets are concerned about possible disturbance or attacks on these vital marine routes.

See all the developments for Israel – Iran conflict here

As a result, shipping premiums – a cost that is eventually passed on to the consumer are also increasing.

Brent oil, which is also an international reference, rose 8%, reaching $ 75 (£ 55) on Friday.

This increase has a broader impact on the global economy, as oil is a key factor in the cost of producing many goods and services – from plastic games to air travel.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), inflation in developed economies is increasing by approximately 0.4 percentage points for each 10% increase in oil price.

Some analysts remain calm in terms of impact on trade, but the region is already facing serious challenges.

Yemen’s Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, have launched attacks on ships crossing the Red Sea to the Suez Canal – one of the most important trade channels for container transport.

“This has forced many ships to follow the longest route around Africa connecting Asia to Europe, which adds one to two weeks of travel time and about $ 1 million on a trip per trip,” explains Sarah Sifling, an academic at the Hanken Economics School.

She notes that “longer travel times reduce the overall availability of ships, as ships are bound for a longer period, creating a chain impact on global transport and supply networks.”

Iran, at the same time, has repeatedly threatened the straits of Ormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Arab Sea.

About a quarter of world oil trade, and Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that an exclusion could push the price of oil over $ 100 a barrel.

However, such a move would be an extreme choice for Iran, as it would have unhappy its basic customer – China – but also countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, two more important oil -producing countries that also depend on their exports.