Managers point to good opportunities on the stock exchange with the return of activities

The advance of vaccination among young people and adults and the reduction in the number of hospitalizations and deaths due to Covid reinforces the scenario that 2022 should show some recovery in the economy.

In this sense, even with the prospects of low growth for the country’s economy for this year, fund managers believe that there are good opportunities on the Stock Exchange in shares of companies that benefit from the cycle of resumption of activities and the return to a routine. closer to pre-pandemic.

In particular, in the case of consumer and retail businesses, which had even better results in 2021 than in 2019, before the impacts of the pandemic. This is the case of administrators of shopping malls and clothing chains, for example.

Founder and investment director of asset manager Hix Capital, Rodrigo Heilberg says that he has been carrying shares of companies such as Iguatemi and SBF group, controller of Centauro, in the portfolio of funds.

Data released at the end of January, notes the manager, showed that the malls of the Iguatemi chain reported record sales in the fourth quarter of 2021, with a volume of R$ 4.7 billion, which represented a growth of 30.6% in comparison with the same period of 2020 and 11.8% compared to the same range in 2019. “With strong sales, rents are at robust levels”, says the manager.

Heilberg says that the Ibovespa’s recent rise in the first months of the year was mainly sustained by the entry of foreign flows into the local market. The Ibovespa, the main stock index in the local market, accumulated an increase of approximately 13.6% in the year, until Friday.

But international investors, says the manager, tend to allocate the resources destined to the Brazilian stock exchange mostly in securities from large commodity exporting companies or banks.

“We see many interesting opportunities in sectors focused on the domestic market that have been left behind”, says the founder of Hix.

He adds that the agricultural segment, through positions in the companies Boa Safra, Brasil Agro and Vittia, and energy, via Light and Eneva, also make up the funds’ portfolio.

Founding partner and manager of GTI Administração de Recursos, André Gordon points out BR Malls, Vulcabras and Pão de Açúcar among the stocks in the portfolio that he hopes will benefit not only from the normalization of activities, but also from the companies’ own growth strategies.

“Pão de Açúcar has been restructuring in recent years, sold some non-essential assets such as Extra points, will reinvest in its main brand and is now worth about a third of what it should”, says the GTI manager.

In addition to the more domestic names, Gordon says that he currently enjoys roles related to the dynamics of growth on a global scale.

This is the case, for example, of the producer of automotive components Iochpe-Maxion, which has a good part of its revenue from abroad, as well as the commodity exporters Vale, Petrobras, Gerdau and Suzano.

“Itau Unibanco, which presented very solid numbers in 2021 and which should once again deliver a robust result this year, is also an important position in our funds”, adds the GTI manager.

Founding partner of Apex Capital, Paulo Weickert says that both Itaú, BB (Banco do Brasil) and BTG Pactual presented strong results in the fourth quarter, above the market consensus, standing out against their peers in the last balance sheet season.

Despite the low economic growth expected for the year and the consequent slowdown in lending, Weickert says that double-digit interest rates will offset part of this negative impact on banks’ balance sheets.

“We think that the Stock Exchange is cheap and that there are several opportunities”, says the Apex partner, who points out Iguatemi, Lojas Renner, Arezzo and Locamerica among the shares in the portfolios of the funds best positioned to take better advantage of the resumption of activities forward.

Manager of Neo Investimentos, Augusto Lange says that, within the financial sector, he prefers the securities of insurance companies to those of banks.

“Insurers had a significant increase in claims due to hospital admissions and the number of deaths. This tends to cool down over the next few months if we don’t have any rebound from the pandemic”, says Lange, noting that banks need to deal with the reduction in demand. for credit in the face of an economy that does not grow and with the growing competition brought by fintechs.

He also says he likes companies in the clothing sector, due to the positive impact generated by the return to face-to-face activities and the flow to stores. Also weighing in favor is a possible decompression in raw material costs due to the appreciation of the real and the slowdown in input inflation.

Among the stock market segments that he looks at with a little more caution, Neo’s manager points out companies in the real estate sector.

The rise in interest and financing, says Lange, tends to cause a reduction in demand from buyers, with likely weak quarterly results from developers throughout the year.

“As it was last year, volatility should continue to be present on the Brazilian stock exchange in 2022, but it could be something that will add value, because asymmetries start to appear in share prices in relation to what we believe the company can be worth” , says Isabel Lemos, manager of Fator Administração de Recursos.

She points out, however, that the equity investment strategy requires a medium and long-term horizon, in order to withstand the bumps that will certainly occur, but without losing sight of the companies’ expectation of cash generation and profit for the next few years.

“We saw that stocks in the retail sector had a weak performance due to the restrictions imposed by the pandemic, but some were too pressured”, says Isabel, noting that names such as Magazine Luiza, Via and Westwing underwent a sudden repricing by investors when over the last few months.

“There are opportunities in the Brazilian market, but there will be volatility. It’s not a perfect sky”, says the manager.