Energy markets are in turmoil, as Iran’s parliament has approved the closure of the strait of Ormuz, a critical point for global oil supply, with the final decision to launch the country’s leadership, according to Iranian states.

Any move to prevent the flow of shipping movement from the Persian Gulf would probably lead to oil prices – and higher prices on the petrol pump. But how high they will rise and for how long, it is an open question that depends to a large extent on what will happen around the straits of the hormone. About 20 percent of world oil and gas transport passes through the narrow water section between Iran to the north and Oman to the south.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News on Sunday that it would be “financial suicide” and a “terrible mistake” for Iran to stop traffic through the strait. He urged China, which is largely dependent on the oil and gas of the area, to push Iran to avoid this move.

“It would be, I think, a massive escalation that would deserve an answer, not only from us, but also from others,” Rubio said.

‘Eternal consequences’

Following the US bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aarkci said Sunday that there will be “eternal consequences” for an attack that he described as “extremely dangerous, illegal and criminal”.

It remains unclear whether Iran will attempt such an exclusion or use mines or missiles to discontinue the flow of trade through the area.

Before the United States bombed Iran, analysts already warned that closing the strait could push oil prices well above $ 100 per barrel. This would be an increase of more than 30 percent from the point they are today. Such a change could quickly push the average price of a gallon of normal gasoline (now about $ 3.22, according to AAA) to $ 4.

Analysts, however, warn that Iran is unlikely to threaten and note that the nation has vowed to close the strait in the past and has never done it successfully.

Most of the oil passing through the strait is handed over to Asia and Iran is cautious to alienate China’s allegory, especially. Iran may also not have the power of fire to successfully exclude the strait.

Regardless of what happens in the strait of the hormone, the instability in the area after the blows will probably send oil prices -at least temporarily.

“It is likely that there will be panic moves,” said Denton Cinquegrana, head of oil analyst at OPIS.

Interference in GPS

Meanwhile, Iran has taken actions to prevent energy transfers through the narrow by other means, such as the interference of tanker GPS signals in the area. The Windward Nautical Information Company reports that 23% of ships in the area – about 1,600 ships – were subjected to signal interference on Sunday, with a sharp increase compared to Friday when 970 ships were affected.

Such actions, however, have already been generally taken into account in current oil prices.

Windward’s spokesman said it is too early to say whether navigation standards through the strait have already changed after US blows.

Jpmorgan’s nightmare scenario

As market observers remain cautious about Iran’s ability to close the strait, some predict that any increases in prices for Americans will be short.

“Slow oil prices have increased, but in the absence of a decisive Iranian reaction, I would say that prices will not maintain their profits,” said Simon Lack, a portfolio manager at Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund. “The US is energy independent, so they are less exposed to the highest oil prices than most other countries,” he added.

US officials have been worried for decades about the consequences of closing the strait of Ormuz. Over the years, the US has reduced their long -term dependence on Middle East oil and evolved into the world’s largest oil producer, now buying only a small percentage of their oil from the area.

However, the interruption of such an important shipping road would have an impact on the entire world economy. If Iran defies calls and manages to impose exclusion, prices could increase abruptly. JPMorgan analysts warned earlier this month that a comprehensive military conflict and close closure could raise prices up to $ 130 per barrel.