Iran may threaten to close the straits of the Ormuz, but experts have told CNBC that it is also the one who has to lose most.

In a significant move after the US hit in Iran’s nuclear facilities, the country’s parliament is allegedly approved by the closure of the Ormuz Straits, risking alienating its neighbors and commercial partners.

The decision to close the aquatic road is now up to the country’s National Security Council and this has “threatened” with an increase in energy prices and the exacerbation of geopolitical tensions, with Washington calling on Beijing to prevent the close closing.

What do analysts support

Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights Energy Intelligence Company, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia that if Iran excludes the narrow, the country is in danger of converting neighboring oil -producing countries into enemies and risking hostilities with them.

Data from the US Action Information Service revealed that Iran had transferred 1.5 million barrels a day through the Ormuz straits in the first quarter of 2025.

In addition, a closure would also cause Iran’s market in Asia, especially China, which represents the majority of Iranian oil exports.

“So, very little will be achieved and much greater would be the damage that Iran could do to itself,” Harry said.

Her opinion is supported by Andrew Bishop, head of policy research at Consulting Company Signum Global Advisors.

Iran will not want to compete in China, he said, adding that the interruption of supplies will also “aim” the production of oil, export infrastructure and the country itself “at a time when there is no reason to doubt US and Israel’s determination”.

Clayton Seigle, a senior partner for energy security and climate change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that as China is “very dependent” on the bay flows, not only by Iran, “the interest of its national security would really appreciate its stabilization Gas through the narrow. “

There are currently no evidence of threats against maritime maritime maritime passage, according to the joint shipping center. “US -partner ships have successfully crossed the strait of the Ormuz, which is a positive sign for the immediate future.”

Impact of any closure

The Strait of Ormuz is the only sea road from the Persian Gulf to the Open Ocean and about 20% of world oil crosses the sea road. The US energy intelligence service has described it as the “most important suffocation point for the world transit in the world”.

‘The best strategy [για το Ιράν] It would be to disrupt oil flows in the hormoz enough to hit the US through moderate upward movement of prices, but not enough to provoke a significant US reaction against Iranian production and exporting oil capacity, “Bishop said.

On Sunday, Patrick de Haan, head of oil analysis in Gasbuddy, said in a report on X that pumps in the US could rise to $ 3.35-3.50 per gallon in the coming days, compared to the national average of $ 3,139 for June 16.

If Iran decides to close the strait, it will probably use small boats for partial blockade or, for a more complete solution, will narrow the waterway, according to David Roche, a strategic analyst of Quantum Strategy.

Will hurt his neighbors

In its Sunday note, S&P Global Commodity Insights wrote that any close closure from Iran would mean that not only Iran’s own exports, but also those of neighboring Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Arabic and the United Arab Emirates, and the United Arab Arabic.

This would possibly remove more than 17 billion barrels of oil from world markets and would affect the regional refineries causing raw material shortages, the research company said. The interruption of supply will affect Asia, Europe and North America.

In addition to oil, natural gas flows could also be affected “seriously”, S&P said, with Qatar gas exports of approximately 77 million metric tonnes per year unable to reach basic markets in Asia and Europe.

Qatar’s liquefied natural gas exports account for about 20% of the global liquefied natural gas supply.

“Alternative pathways for oil and gas in the Middle East are limited, with pipeline capacity not enough to offset possible maritime disorders through the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea,” S&P added.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia pointed out that “there is a limited room for bypass of the Strait of Hormuz”. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates’ pipelines have only one reserve capacity of 2.6 million barrels a day, while the narrow overseeing the transfer of about 20 million oil barrels and petroleum products a day, the bank said in its note.

All of this has an upward risk for energy prices, with Goldman Sachs estimating that the market prices a $ 12 geopolitical risk.

If the oil flows through the narrow is reduced by 50% for a month and then remain reduced by 10% for another 11 months, the Brent is projected to “launch for a while” at a peak of around $ 110, Goldman says.