The ceasefire between Israel and Iran drives away the clouds of uncertainty about the geopolitical impact on the economy from the Middle East crisis and paves the way for the financial staff to design its next moves with a central axis of its package TIF.

The final decisions on the announcements of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis from Thessaloniki in September are expected to be taken in August, but the preparation of the package composition. taxation and specific measures that will concern the mortgageenhancing vulnerable groups and facilitating the daily life of the citizen is in full swing. A typical prerequisite for all this is the Eurogroup decisions on July 7, where the fiscal space available to our country will be ratified by the utilization of the escape clause for defense spending which is estimated at € 500 million for 2026.

Positive evolution, with the truce in the conflict between Israel and Iran, removes the concern that caused the possibility of rejuvenating inflation from a new crisis in fuel prices due to extension and escalation of the war. This could create divergences from the original plans for the direction of aid, provided there was a need to support households for energy accounts, financial staff officials said. In addition, the impact on the rate of growth that would change the equation for the amount of the fiscal space should be calculated.

Thus, the expiration of alarm on developments in the Middle East front paves the way for final decisions based on the positive data created by the strong growth of the Greek economy and the over -rewarding of revenue in conjunction with increased tax evasion receipts. On the basis of the process of executing the budget, the financial staff estimates that this year the primary surplus will significantly exceed the 3.2% of GDP.

In the five months of January – May the primary surplus It amounted to € 5.34 billion, significantly increased by a surplus target of € 1.05 billion. Last year the same period was € 3.2 billion, with the end of 2024 at € 11.4 billion or 4.8% of GDP. Last year’s fiscal performance is, after all, the strong basis for which the TIF package is made, as these developments have an additional € 1 billion fiscal space which, along with the escape clausal clause for defense costs, will be used for September.
The main focus of the TIF announcements will be the reduction of tax burdens for the middle class, as the prime minister has already specified and points out in his interventions by the Minister of National Economy and Finance Kyriakos Pierrakakis.

The decrease in tax rates for middle income and lower -income reliefs will be the main axis of interventions.

Significant weight in the package is expected to be measured by the Ministry of National Economy and Finance to address the housing problem. It is motivated for property owners to open “closed” properties they have in order to increase their offer and aid to tenants. The housing beam will be framed by the decisions currently being processed by the Ministry of National Economy and Finance to “mark” more than 30,000 properties in the possession of banks and services, but for urban planning and other issues cannot be exploited.