The unemployment rate in Brazil dropped to 11.2% in the moving quarter from December to February, informed the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) this Thursday (31). It is the lowest mark for the period since February 2016.
The result came down financial market expectations. Analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency projected 11.4% in the median.
“In the quarter ended in February, there was a retraction in the population looking for work, which had already been happening in previous quarters. The difference is that in this quarter there was no significant growth in the employed population”, says the coordinator of Work and Income at IBGE , Adriana Beringuy.
According to the IBGE, the unemployment rate was 11.6% between September and November 2021, the immediately preceding quarter of the comparable series. The indicator was 14.6% in the quarter ended in February 2021.
By official statistics, a person is considered unemployed when he is out of work and continues to look for vacancies.
The number of unemployed people dropped to 12 million in the quarter to February 2022. It was 12.4 million in the previous quarter and 14.9 million in the period ending in February 2021.
The average income from work was estimated at R$ 2,511, with relative stability compared to the previous quarter (R$ 2,504), says the IBGE. However, it is the lowest ever recorded in a quarter ending in February since the beginning of the survey’s historical series, in 2012.
In the annual comparison, with the quarter until February 2021, there was a reduction of 8.8% in income. At that time, the average income was R$ 2,752.
The data are part of the Continuous Pnad (Continuous National Household Sample Survey). The survey analyzes both the formal job market, with a formal contract or CNPJ, and the informal job market, which includes the popular odd jobs.
The generation of jobs tries to recover from the impact caused by the pandemic. With the effects of the health crisis, unemployment rose in the country. According to Pnad, the number of unemployed reached 15 million at the beginning of 2021.
With the reopening of the economy, there was a process of returning to the market, and unemployment began to decline in recent quarters.
This is not to say that the scenario is worry-free. A sign of this is that the resumption of employment in the country has been accompanied by a strong fall in the real average income of work.
The smaller gains reflect factors such as rising inflation and the opening of lower-wage jobs, often associated with the informal sector, economists point out.
According to them, the most consistent recovery in employment and income depends on the growth of economic activity as a whole.
The problem is that forecasts point to poor performance for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2022, under the effect of persistent inflation and high interest rates.
The financial market predicts a slight increase of 0.5% for this year’s GDP, according to the Focus bulletin, released by the BC (Central Bank).
A Datafolha survey indicated a worsening in March in the population’s perception of the job market. According to the survey, 50% of Brazilians believe in an increase in unemployment, while 20% believe in a decrease.
In December, the contingent that predicted a rise in unemployment and the portion that projected an improvement in the indicator were tied, with 35% for each.
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