Intense weather conditions that hit Europe this summer caused short -term financial losses of at least 43 billion euros, According to EU level estimated, with Cost is expected to increase to 126 billion euro to 2029.

The immediate blow to the economy of a single summer full of heat, drought and floods amounted to 0.26% of the EU’s economic product in 2024, according to rapid analysis, which has not been assessed by peer, but is based on the relationship between weather and financial data published in academic study this month.

The greatest damage was caused to Cyprus, Greece, Malta and Bulgaria – each of which suffered short -term losses of more than 1% of the “gross value added” (APA) of 2024. Other Mediterranean countries, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal, followed.

Economists from the University of Mannheim and the European Central Bank have described the results as “conservatives” because the unprecedented fires that destroyed southern Europe have not been taken into account last month or the worsening effect of extreme weather events affecting the same time.

Sechris Usman, an economist at the University of Mannheim and lead author of the study, said the study’s “timely estimates” could help policy makers in the absence of official data. “The real cost of extreme weather comes to the surface slowly, because these events affect lives and means of living through a wide range of channels that extend beyond the initial impact.”

Scientists are struggling to calculate to what extent global heating has worsened, with studies suggesting that climate change It makes fires 40 times more likely in Spain and Portugal and 10 times more likely in Greece and Turkey. The death toll from June’s “quietly devastating” heatwave is estimated to have tripled in 12 major cities due to pollution that warms the planet.

While most surveys on the financial cost of climate change consider direct impacts, such as property disasters or insured losses, the authors of the new study used historical relationships between extreme weather conditions and economic production to explain the effects of the impacts that can be worked on by the effects of Damages caused by floods on the railways.

Stéphane Hallegate, a head of climate economist at the World Bank, who did not participate in the study, confirmed that the wider economic impact of extreme weather events were greater than the immediate impact and lasting longer than people imagine. However, it warned that “imperfect approximate variables” were used to identify extreme weather, which would probably lead to undercover full costs.

Gert Bijnens, an economist at the Belgian National Bank, who also did not participate in the study, said the supply chain disorder was one of the most important “hidden costs” that was usually not calculated.