The growth rate of the Bulgarian economy is estimated at 3.2% in 2025, according to a new report by the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) on regional economic prospects. The exhibition was published on Thursday on the EBRD website.

This prediction is an adaptation up to 0.4% over the previous provision. Growth is expected to be mitigated at 2.6% in 2026, a percentage that remains unchanged by the spring forecast.

This growth depends on the maintenance of public investment, while accession to the eurozone could boost trade and private investment, including foreign investment, said the EBRD.

Looking back to the Bulgarian economy, the report states that after acceleration to 2.8% in 2024, the actual GDP increase increased further to 3.2% annually in the first half of 2025. Despite some wage growth, private consumption was resistant, while the unemployment rate was reduced to 3.6%. Inflation increased to 5.3% in July 2025, partly due to the increase in the value of value added tax (VAT) on bread and restaurants to 20%.

After a weak 2024, investment also recovered due to higher public capital costs. On the other hand, exports were reduced annually, as exports of energy products and raw materials shrunk. State spending increased by 20% in the first half of 2025, while revenue increased by only 13%, increasing fiscal risks.

However, after approval of the eurozone integration, Bulgaria benefits from credit rating and lower funding costs.

The report also points out that US duties to EU exports will adversely affect Bulgaria’s industrial production and exports.