Autumnal clouds gather over the green electricity bills November (3.5 million consumers have them), with the trends prevailing so far in the Energy Exchange predicting increases, the range of which remains to be determined in the coming days.

According to the estimates of the Energy Institute of Southeast Europe, the reduced participation of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in the energy mix, the export mark of the Greek system and the presence of lignite in the fuel mix have contributed to the rise in prices in the Greek wholesale market.

At the same time, the well-known distortions in the cross-border connections of the networks (with the cheapest prices of the countries of Central Europe not “reaching” the South) as well as chronic pathologies in the functioning of domestic competition keep price trends at high levels.

In addition, the marginal system price (OTS) (the wholesale price at which providers buy electricity) is determined by the most expensive natural gas, based on the “rigid” rules of the famous Target Model (which governs the operation of energy markets in Europe), with the result that consumers do not “feel” the supposedly cheap energy of RES in their pockets since in the end the gas “wins”, the which still plays a key role in meeting demand. Also, a critical factor remains the dependence on imported LNG (mainly American) which remains expensive.

November tariff forecasts have a high chance of… error with providers in the past either pleasantly surprising (holding down tariffs even though wholesale prices followed the slope) or unpleasantly, pinching up tariffs even as wholesale prices fell.

It is estimated that despite the increased wholesale prices, the providers will not want to… displease the citizens by raising the prices and risking losing market shares, without this meaning that they will not increase the tariffs.

Elevator the wholesale price

For today, Monday, October 27, on the DAM (Next Day Market), the price of electricity, as it is formed on the Greek energy exchange based on the mix of electricity production and demand, opened at 96.43 euros/MWh, in a market of extreme fluctuations, after on Tuesday, October 21, the price touched 151.76 euros/MWh.

Last month, the average wholesale price of electricity closed at 92.77 euros/MWh, with the average wholesale price for the 27 days of October moving around 20% higher (at 112.25 euros per megawatt hour) than in September, a sign that points to increases in the tariffs that consumers will pay.

RES occupy first place even today (with a clear lead) in electricity production with a percentage of 58.55% compared to 32.66% of natural gas.

The next few days until Saturday, November 1 (when the providers will announce the tariff policy) will be decisive for where the ball will sit on possible increases, with PPC (the dominant market player in residential connections) and Protergia traditionally giving the signal to the rest.

The landscape with “red” tariffs is being rearranged

From November, electricity providers are expected to start offering new “hybrid” products that are not fully linked to price fluctuations in the wholesale market and will offer greater predictability in electricity costs for consumers. These are the new generation “red” tariffs, which are fixed charges per month and per level of consumption, while the liquidation (if the specific level is exceeded) will be done every six months or year.

The FSA in the text of the consultation on the additional measures in electricity retail had expanded the color code by establishing one more category, the “red” flexible tariff in addition to the “blue” fixed, the “yellow” floating tariffs and the “orange” dynamic tariffs (the deadline for the green ones expires at the end of the year and has not yet been decided if they will continue).

However, until the end of October, there will be final meetings and consultations between the executives of RAAEF and the power supply companies in order to arrive at the new framework and also the final color of the new product (the providers do not like the color red) so that it can be implemented in November.