Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Correction of the IR table may come out even during Bolsonaro’s campaign

Jair Bolsonaro can correct the Individual Income Tax table later this year. Paulo Guedes, spoke on the subject this Thursday (7th), at a Bradesco event. It might be one of those typical ministerial “next week” or “in ninety days” ideas. But the Planalto people in charge of the government campaign or the government campaigning say that, yes, they can even leave as a provisional measure.

The idea of ​​correcting the IR seemed dead since the government’s project to change the Income Tax in general, approved in the Chamber in September, had foundered in the Senate, like the rest of the entire tax reform.

Senator Ângelo Coronel (PSD-BA), shelved the Executive bill, approved by the deputies, and proposed another one, with exemption for income of up to R$ 3,300 (currently, the exemption goes up to R$ 1,903.98), among others. changes.

This project was detonated by the Ministry of Economy, as it would be expensive, a loss of revenue of more than R$ 35 billion per year. Now, Guedes talks about the subject again, the IRPF (change in the companies’ IR will not come out).

According to a palace advisor, Bolsonaro, of course, wants change, which he asked for now. Guedes had not said “no,” according to this advisor. He had stopped studying, “something could be done”.

Guedes packaged the promise of the benefit in that conversation of “giving resources back to society”. “We discussed if we are going to correct the IR table now or if we leave it for the first action of the new government. We don’t want to use all the high collection at once. We are going to return only part so we don’t run fiscal risks”, he said.

It doesn’t matter if the collection was higher than expected. The government continues to have a primary deficit (spending more than it collects, even if the public debt interest expense is not included in this account). The total, “nominal” deficit is even greater and will grow, given the rise in the interest rate account (unless inflation plummets tomorrow and GDP starts to grow as it hasn’t grown for more than decades).

In short, the less tax it collects, the more the government will have to borrow, thus giving more money to the rich, without benefiting the poorest (who do not pay income tax precisely because they lack income).

Guedes also spoke of touching on the debt renegotiation of Simples companies. As long as there’s bamboo, there’s arrow (that is, as long as the government doesn’t hit the primary deficit limit this year, it will burn more). There was a reduction in fuel tax, a small reduction in IPI. It had the release of a special FGTS loot (does not change the deficit). There will be debt assistance (larger payroll loans for more people, which will not provide, but gives an illusion of relief from despair).

On Wednesday, Bolsonaro himself announced the end of the “water scarcity flag”, the extra on the electricity bill in times of drought and expensive energy generation. The measure was brought forward by 15 days. It goes into effect on the 16th and can reduce the electricity bill, on average, by 17%.

The people have not yet seen the change, but they will notice and the government will beat the drum. It’s not a big deal, but the shortage is big, something the richest of “public opinion” don’t pay much attention to.

While Lula da Silva (PT) started talking a lot of nonsense and the “Third Way” has just imploded the rest of his feeble electoral base, Bolsonaro is looking for some polling points there, others here, making a deficit to fund these votes. And your campaign has barely begun. The “culture war” and the crushing of Lula are still coming.