A “climate storm” formed by intense heat, lack of rain and frost resulted in smaller oranges and fruit falling in the orchards, bringing down the crop in the citrus belt formed by the interior of São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro.
The 2021/22 harvest ended with a decline of 31.2 million boxes of oranges, which, although this may not seem like much compared to the 262.97 million boxes calculated by Fundecitrus (Citriculture Defense Fund), represent 64% of the entire crop expected from Florida (USA), a traditional citrus growing hub.
The drop is even more drastic for citrus because the crop should be of high production. The crop is biannual — that is, it produces a lot in one year and less in the next —, but the almost 263 million boxes now were lower than the 268.3 million in the 2020/21 harvest, which was a low year in the cycle.
Fundecitrus’ initial projection indicated 294.17 million boxes of 40.8 kilos each, but the prolonged drought, added to the frosts recorded in July, made the fruits smaller, forcing citrus growers to use more oranges to fill a box. .
“We are looking for the best ways to mitigate climate impacts, but citrus farming has not been able to achieve this in recent years,” said agriculturalist Sarita Junqueira Rodas, who heads the Junqueira Rodas group, which has 13 farms in São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul.
In addition to the climate combo, she said that the sector suffers from inflation, the high cost of labor and, now, the risk of shortages of inputs due to the war in Eastern Europe. “There is no producer who sleeps in peace.” The loss due to weather on the group’s farms is estimated at 15%.
The reflexes of this second crop in a row with low production will be the reduction of the final remuneration of the citrus growers and the orange juice stocks in the industries.
“The weather got in the way from the time of flowering. We had a very hot period after flowering, but then, afterwards, there was a very strong heat and where the first fruits had appeared, they fell. In some regions, the rain came very late, that’s why we ended up having a predominant crop of second and third flowering, which are later”, said the coordinator of the Fundecitrus crop estimate survey, Vinícius Trombin.
According to him, the fruits are 16% lighter than the average of the last five harvests —142 grams, compared to 170 grams considered ideal — and showed a higher rate of fall of the feet than in previous years (20%, compared to 13% in 16 % of recent years).
With production costs on the rise, the impact for the consumer should be to pay more for oranges, due to inflationary pressure and the low supply of the fruit.
“War is another concern, because Europe is basically our main market. Any problem there, influences the consumption of juice,” said Trombin.
The possibility of lack of juice in the market is seen as real by Ibiapaba Netto, executive director of CitrusBR (association of exporters).
The current projection indicates that, on June 30, the stocks of industries will be at 126,500 tonnes, the second lowest since 2008 — in 2017, stocks reached 107,300 tonnes.
“When there is a large climatic imbalance, as now, part of the production does not meet standards and the juice is unavailable for sale.” This juice not sold because it does not meet market requirements is stored and mixed with the next harvest.
A citrus researcher at Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), at Esalq/USP, Fernanda Geraldini said that the forecast for the 2022/23 crop is for a more favorable climate, due to the greater volume of rains since October.
“Of course, we cannot ignore the intense drought of recent years, which can still have an impact, but the climate is much more favorable.”
She, however, raises another point that could be a more serious problem if the citrus industry persists: the reduction in the planted area, which since 2020 has fallen by around 4%.
“It’s not absurd, but it’s a warning sign, it could fall this year and it’s something that would start to worry,” said the researcher.
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