If international commodity prices are already high, putting pressure on inflation rates around the world, the situation could get even worse. Commodities will appreciate 28% in dollar terms this year.
The estimate is from the consultancy MacroSector, which predicts a good increase in revenue in the field, but producers will have very tight margins, due to high costs.
This external price rise comes from an overall 4.3% expansion in the economy. This evolution of commodities will only not be greater due to the acceleration of interest rates around the world.
Prices rise even with an increase in world production and an increase in inventories of various products. The corn crop is expected to rise to 1.2 trillion tonnes, with inventories rising to 301 million, according to the consultancy.
Soybean, due to the crop failure in Brazil, will have a world production of 354 million tons, down from 366 million the previous year.
MacroSector estimates ending stocks of 90 million tons for the oilseed in this harvest. In the previous one, the volume was 102 million.
Internal revenues, which came at an intense pace, have a lower evolution in 2022. For the consultancy, the crops will yield R$ 1 trillion, 12% more than in the same period last year.
The Ministry of Agriculture foresees a national GVP (Gross Value of Production) of R$ 1.27 trillion. Government data also includes livestock.
In the Ministry’s assessment, crop revenues increased 7.5%, and livestock revenues fell 8.5% this year.
The reduction in producer margins is due to cost pressure, mainly from fertilizers.
In March of last year, the producer bought a ton of fertilizer with 14.6 bags of soybeans. This year, you need 23.6. The exchange ratio was also unfavorable for corn and sugarcane producers.
Coffee, on the other hand, due to the soaring prices of the commodity, maintain a favorable relationship. Last year, they exchanged 2.6 bags for a ton of fertilizer. This year, the ratio is 1.6 bags, in MacroSector’s accounts.
The average price of oil, another cost component for farmers, is expected to rise 34% this year from the previous year.
Fertilizers, on the other hand, maintain prices 120% higher than a year ago, as shown by import data from Secex (Secretariat of Foreign Trade). This increase will cause a reduction in consumption and imports.
Domestic sales of fertilizer will fall to 42.2 million tons, 8% below those of 2021. Imports fall to 32.9 million, with a drop of 16%, assesses the consultancy.
The dollar, which brings more reais in exports when raised, should stay at R$ 5.10 this year. This level, however, increases the costs of the agricultural sector, which depends on various inputs from the foreign market.
According to the consultancy, the agricultural GDP, which had a reduction of 0.2% last year, should grow 1.5% this year, above the 0.5% of the country’s general GDP.
In fall The forecast of a good safrinha and a recomposition of the corn supply caused a series of falls of the cereal in the domestic market, according to a survey by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics).
Fall two The sack of corn, which was traded at R$97 in the last week of March, according to the Esalq/BM&F/Bovespa price indicator, is at R$87.6, the lowest price of the year. The accumulated retraction in the last 14 trading sessions is 10%.
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