Scenarios that move in two main directions, the imposition of a ceiling on the wholesale market and the continuation of multi-variant subsidies, are being considered by the relevant government staffs to restore the electricity bill to a sustainable level for households, businesses and corporate receivables. electricity.
The common denominator of all scenarios is the financing of their implementation, since funds of at least 3-4 billion euros are required for the rest of the year, an amount that can be increased much more in case of complete interruption of Europe’s supply of Russian gas, a development that can not be ruled out as long as the war in Ukraine is raging.
The unknown “X”
All the scenarios at the moment are missing the common unknown “X”, the funds that the government will decide that it can allocate by assessing the fiscal impact.
The final amount, according to what is conveyed to “K” by competent government officials, will determine how much closer to the prices of the pre-crisis period, the cost of electricity can return. Once the unknown “X” is defined, the competent staffs will complete the exercises they have already done on paper to present to the Prime Minister the most effective models of consumer relief.
The prime minister will choose the most appropriate one to be ready to implement in case the May Summit does not adopt some of the proposals for central intervention submitted by the group of countries of the South, on the initiative of Greece.
At national level, the first intervention concerns the imposition of a ceiling on the wholesale market on the basis of three alternative scenarios. Either imposing a price ceiling on each technology (natural gas, lignite, RES, etc.), or a single ceiling or imposing a price cap on natural gas.
A crucial factor is the financing of the new measures, since at least 3-4 billion are required for the rest of the year.
The assumption in all three scenarios is common and is based on the introduction of a revenue limit on the various forms of energy, which will average a price lower than the system limit value, and based on this, suppliers will buy energy for their customers. In this way a value is achieved that will not be affected by the high fluctuation of the gas, which currently sets the system limit value.
This way, the state will not have to come and subsidize the consumers, while at the same time any surplus profits will go directly to consumption and not through a time-consuming and combative tax mechanism.
This is one side of the ceiling with any variant applied.
The other, which worries the government and tries to put it on paper to quantify it, is the impact it will have on the majority of consumers, as the measure will reduce the price horizontally for all by limiting the significant relief that those who consume to 300 kilowatt hours per month. Through subsidies, according to the Minister of Environment and Energy Costas Skrekas, 7 out of 10 households see in their account a discount of 62% and in a large number of companies the subsidy covers 55% -57% of the increases.
“We have to look at all the parameters. “Let’s see whether, with the imposition of a maximum price, many people will end up buying electricity more expensively,” Minister Costas Skrekas told “K”, confirming the government’s difficulties in unilaterally providing an effective solution to the price issue, as the crisis continues. and huge amounts are required.
«We look at all the scenarios, we will come up with the most effective. It is not an easy exercise“, He emphasizes, pointing out that as long as the price of gas is high, in our country we will not see a significant de-escalation of electricity prices, and this is because the fuel mixture is based on more than 40% on natural gas and 20% on imports.
The combination of imposing a ceiling and maintaining a subsidy for vulnerable consumers is also a scenario being considered. In any of its forms, the ceiling enforcement model presupposes a fund to cover the price difference in relation to the fluctuation of the gas price. The fuller the fund, the lower the pricing limit, and vice versa.
On the positive side of the ceiling enforcement model is the substantial or even the formal abolition of the adjustment clause, against which a legal campaign by consumer organizations and bar associations of the country is in full swing lately.
The case seems to be taken into account by the co-responsible staffs, as a possible justification even only in the part of its enforcement, through the unilateral modification of fixed tariffs, will bring a huge blow to the supply companies and the electricity market as a whole.
The second axis of interventions includes the continuation of subsidies by extending the consumption limit beyond 300 kilowatt hours per month, in order to cover more consumers. And in this case the expansion limit will be judged by the money that will be given.
On the table seems to be a scenario linking the subsidy with the payment of the bill, in an effort to support and the collection of electricity providers that has declined significantly in recent months. Specifically, the payment of the subsidy is examined on the condition that the consumer has previously paid the part of the bill due to him.
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