(News Bulletin 247) – Feeling of caution redoubled as the wave of quarterly GAFAMs looms, the 5 American tech giants to which Tesla and Netflix can be added, to complete the club of emblematic growth files, which are still showing , for the time being, resistance to the adoption of an increasingly firm tone on the part of the Fed, which reacts in a much more offensive manner than the ECB in the face of the inflationary threat.
The odds of a 50 basis point hike at the next deadline are only growing. And the possibility, not excluded, of an increase of 75 basis points in one go, to “mark the occasion”, would have a significant impact on bond yields. A look is needed at the Treasuries 10 years, which continue their ascent towards the symbolic cap of 3%, at 2.88%.
The Nasdaq Composite (-0.14% Monday to 13,332 points), drew a doji of indecision, in shrinking volumes, making a timid comeback after the Easter weekend. The week will be relatively poor in major macroeconomic statistics and investors will focus on the start of the big group quarterly ball. Note the publication of the Beige Book on Wednesday, a document which “will give an indication as to the resistance of the American economy and could make it possible to anticipate a little more the next movements of the Fed concerning monetary policy”, for Vincent Boy, analyst of the IG France market. “FOMC member Bullard indicated yesterday that a 75 basis point hike could be an option if it becomes necessary.”
KEY GRAPHIC ELEMENTS
The very short-term technical framework has just realigned itself with the medium term in the red, with an immediate work zone reintegrated between 13,330 points and 13,838 points. A breach of this last threshold would cause an accelerating selling movement towards 12,640 points. Volumes are more than ever put under surveillance. Neutral opinion across the upcoming session.
FORECAST
In view of the key chart factors that we have identified, our opinion is neutral on the Nasdaq Composite index in the short term.
We will take care to note that a crossing of 13838.00 points would revive the tension in the purchase. While a break of 13330.00 points would relaunch the selling pressure.
CHART IN DAILY DATA
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