Reduction of the primary deficit of the general government of Greece from 5.9% of GDP in 2021 to 1.9% this year and return to primary surpluses from 2023 predicts the International Monetary Fund in its report on fiscal policy (Fiscal Monitor), which was published today.
The Fund estimates that primary surplus will reach 1.1% of GDP in 2023 and will gradually increase in the coming years to reach 2% in 2027.
The total deficit general government spending, which includes interest on debt service, is expected to fall from 8.7% of GDP in 2021 to 4.8% this year and continue to fall to 0.9% in 2027 .
The public debt of general government is projected to decline from 198.9% of GDP in 2021 to 185.4% this year and to decline further gradually to 160.7% in 2027.
The Public Expenditure It is estimated that they will decrease from 57.9% of GDP in 2021 to 53.1% this year and will continue to decrease in the coming years to reach 45.7% in 2027.
The Government revenue are expected to decline from 49.1% of GDP last year to 48.3% this year and gradually decline further further to 44.8% in 2027.
The dangers of rising global public debt are obvious
The head of the IMF’s fiscal policy department, Vitor Gaspar, said The risks that exist – for all groups of countries – from high debt levels are now very obvious “and are the big issue of the Fiscal Monitor.
“As monetary policy moves to tackle inflation, fiscal policy needs to move to maintain debt sustainability. “In other words, fiscal constraints have returned – and they are binding.”
The Fund says governments must make tough choices and need flexible fiscal policies to tackle record increases in energy and food prices.
With international food prices up 33.6% year-on-year in March, the IMF is pushing for targeted measures to protect vulnerable groups from increases and to avoid interfering with domestic prices. “Where possible, governments should make targeted and temporary transfers to the vulnerable, allowing domestic prices to adjust, which will help provide additional supply and avoid shortages,” Gaspar said.
On high energy prices, he said fiscal policy must take into account not only fiscal constraints but also the climate crisis, and suggested measures to mitigate the impact on vulnerable individuals and businesses, while ensuring that pollution reduction targets are met. by 2030.
The IMF notes that the budget deficit and debt are declining from record levels reached in 2020, but this is due to the temporary positive impact of rising inflation, while the risks remain too high.
“Global public debt is expected to decline in 2022 and then stabilize at about 95% of GDP in the medium term, 11 percentage points higher than pre-pandemic levels,” he said, adding: debt ratios, but as monetary policy tightens to curb inflation, countries’ borrowing costs will rise, limiting the potential for government spending and increasing its vulnerability.
Follow Skai.gr on Google News
and be the first to know all the news
