Commodities Shuttle: Boi is back on the rise, and New Year’s BBQ will be expensive

China, Brazil’s main beef importer, has not been shopping here for ten weeks. As the volume imported by the Chinese was large, an accommodation of domestic prices was expected.

It is not what happens. After a reduction from R$ 322, in July, to R$ 257 at the beginning of this month, the arroba once again exceeded R$ 300. The barbecue at the end of the year will not be cheap.

This month alone, the value of fat cattle at arroba has already risen, on average, 18% in the state of São Paulo, according to price monitoring by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics). This Tuesday (16) it rose to R$ 303.

The acceleration of prices in the field is due to the fact that the supply of cattle for slaughter is very restricted. The most recent data from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) points to a drop of 11% in slaughters in the third quarter of this year, compared to the same period in the previous year.

The drop in prices in recent weeks was helped by the need for the producer to put animals ready for slaughter on the market and that were in confinement.

From now on, with the return of the rains in several regions, the producer will be able to hold the grazing cattle for longer, which gives him greater bargaining power.

In addition, beef sales were supported by demand. The price per kilo of matched carcasses (meats removed from the rear, forequarters and needle tips), after a drop of 6.7% in October, when it registered R$ 18.08 —the lowest level of the year—, once again surpassed R$ 19.

Beef exports remain low. Brazil placed only 4,786 tonnes per business day this month on the foreign market. Last year, there were 8,387.

The absence of China reduced Brazilian exports by 43% this month, compared to the same period in 2020. Prices currently practiced dropped to US$ 4,951 (R$ 27,114, at current prices) per ton and are lower than in September and in last october.

Already the sales of pork and chicken meat maintain a growing volume, including with a good participation of China. Last month, chicken meat exports were 24% higher than in October 2020. In the case of pork, the increase was 12%.

Despite the 4% drop in exported volume in October, foreign sales of beef totaled 1.65 million tonnes in the year, 9% more than in the same period last year. China was left with 948,000 tons.

VBP The Gross Production Value should reach R$ 1.12 trillion this year. The income of producers within the gate has increased a lot in the last two years. In 2019, the VBP was only R$871 million.

Crops The value of crops, including 17 of the main Brazilian products, should reach R$757 billion this year. Livestock, which includes cattle, chicken, pigs, milk and eggs, will reach R$363 billion.

Lockdown The third survey of confinement carried out by the Imea (Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics), referring to October, showed a reduction of 5.2% in the total number of confined animals, compared to July.