Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: The dollar, churches, coup decrees, bandit deputies and the bankrupt Supreme Court

The size of the appreciation of the real and the inflow of money into Brazil in the first quarter was an almost general surprise. It caused the herd of financial markets, then pessimistic about exchange rates, to change direction. Part of the cattle would even run to the dollar gate at R$ 4.50.

Since last week, the oxen have been running in the opposite direction because the world’s financial whirlwind has turned, who knows how long. The dollar is close to R$5 again, appreciation more or less spread across the world, but stronger here, as usual.

Most of the time, the markets here are bullied for what goes on in the squares of the center of the world, which is nothing new. Perhaps the dollar price would be a little less unstable if the Brazilian economy were not so troubled. That is, if it had regular growth, stable inflation and contained public debt, to stay only on rice and beans.

But we don’t even eat beans and rice. People barely take care of the basics even in less abnormal times. Now, in particular, we’re promoting yet another bout of destruction, part of an epidemic, in fact. There is no economic or any other debate about the future, other than that of specialist circles.

What are we talking about these days? Another step towards authoritarian normalization. From Jair Bolsonaro’s forgiveness to deputy ferrabrás das caves. The Presidency of the Republic hands over more and more powers over the Budget in order to advance decrees on the remaining constitutional order and carry out a coup campaign with impunity.

Congress thinks about how to increase the impunity of the people in your corporation. It deals with an “urgent” law to increase tax favors for churches and facilitate their transactions with the State. He celebrates with mayors the “Secret Budget”, which gives more money to parishes and parliamentary corrals.

We see yet another chapter in the progressive demoralization of the Supreme Court, largely the fault of the STF itself, which entered the political-party game a decade and a half ago.

What does this have to do with the dollar or the economy? Anything. Precisely, nothing.

Economic policy in the broadest sense has been adrift for almost a decade, the economy has been in a depression for almost as long. Since September, the command of the economy has been handed over to Bolsonaro’s ignorance and electoral demands. Badly enough, the Central Bank was left, hit by a global surge of inflation, without fiscal policy support, and now subject to the recurring turbulence in the world’s bulk money flows.

As usual, changes in the tone and pace of US monetary (interest) policy cause trouble. The news that the Fed, their central bank, will have to toughen up the game set off the recent surge in the devaluation of the real, helped by the fact that China may grow less, because of Covid.

These very short-term twists are routine. Major financial crises or aberrations have been the norm since at least 1997 (a normalized aberration is the funding of rich governments by their central banks, “money printing”, which has been since 2008).

We are even less resistant to both short-term tantrums and the “climate change” of world finance. We have no immunity, the least stability or project to solve the economic disaster.

Instead, we sometimes dedicate ourselves to shaking or destroying the institutions of our always weak democracy: separation of powers, guarantee of regular elections, accountability of authorities, secularism of the State. Notice, it’s a list of symptoms of doom that we’re seeing these days, but that appeared almost a decade ago.