Opinion – Marcos de Vasconcellos: We are poorer; and that also brings down stocks

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Going to the supermarket has been an inglorious task for those lucky enough to frequent such environments. In five years, the real lost 30% of its purchase value, in general. Today, the basic food basket already costs more than half the minimum wage (currently R$1,212) in most capitals.

In São Paulo, where its items increased by more than 21% in one year, the basic food basket already costs R$ 803, compromising 71.9% of the minimum wage, according to data from Dieese (Intersindical Department of Statistics and Studies). Socioeconomic).

The rise in prices reached this peak precisely when the average income in Brazilian metropolises reached R$ 1,378.35. The lowest level of the historical series, made since 2012. And this is the average, it is worth mentioning.

The survey, carried out by the Observatório das Metrópoles, with data from the IBGE, makes it clear that the poorest people have not yet managed to recover the income level of early 2020, before the coronavirus pandemic.

In case it was not clear: the price of food necessary for the subsistence of a family (this is the definition of a basic basket) rose by more than 20% in one year, in 14 of the 17 capitals surveyed, while the average income fell by almost 2.5 %.

The comparison reveals the high financial commitment to have the minimum recommended food. And I’m not even talking about highly recommended foods in the nutritional field. The composition of the basic food basket is defined in a 1938 law, signed by the then dictator Getúlio Vargas.

The skyrocketing costs of food await new leverage. The Ukrainian War is blocking the export of 25 million tons of grain that would leave the country, according to the UN (United Nations). India, the world’s second largest wheat producer, is facing a record heat wave that threatens its crop. And the fight over fertilizers continues, while the issue between Russia and Ukraine remains unclear.

Add to the equation the hike in the basic interest rate (Selic), which has just reached the historic level of 12.75% per year. The result is the impossibility of predicting any increase in the sale of appliances, furniture, electronics and other products that provide good profit margins for stores and move the industry.

So, looking at the world from the supermarket cart, it is easy to understand why the shares of Magazine Luiza, Via (owner of Casas Bahia) and Lojas Americanas have dropped so much this year. MGLU3 papers plummeted 35.7%; VIIA3, took an impressive fall of 44%; while AMER3 dropped 27%. These are companies that find it difficult to pass on the increase in costs to the final customer.

Who is up for a booklet to change furniture in times of skyrocketing prices and interest, combined with the fall in family income?

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