Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: More than an economist, Lula, Moro or ‘x’ need to show a plan, now

Sergio Moro (Podemos) has appointed an economic adviser. So he launched his campaign among the power elites. I also wanted to give a sign that he is more than a mere captain of the laundering or vigilante. Lula da Silva (PT) will soon have to make a similar move, not just to build his campaign. In fact, Moro’s bid is worth little.

Appointing a chief economist means next to nothing. Not that Affonso Celso Pastore, chosen by Moro, is nothing. He is a reputable economist, whether he likes what he thinks or not. By the way, Morists and Moro’s possible traveling companions will tear their hair out when Pastore starts talking. The economist does not mince his words, he looks at the bone of the problems and, if necessary, will suggest treatments that include amputations and heavy medications. In the vulgar debate, it is what is called hard and pure orthodox.

An economic plan or any other government plan needs to be coherent, make technical sense. But it also needs foundations and social and political agreements. It cannot convulse the country in the path of its execution, for example.

Moro has none of that. For now, it’s a slogan with adherents in part of the economic elite that inflates his balloon, among the military, among the orphaned right-wingers of Jair Bolsonaro and among a number of voters that is almost enough to flatten the tire of other jalopies who walk the “third way “. And it all.

Nobody knows what Lula would do if elected. It is not even known what he will say in the campaign. The question here is not what I would say to “tranquilize the market”, a nonsense like that, although it will need this armor, as it tends to be crushed on several fronts, in the economic one as well. Depending on the level of the campaign, any elected official will find a country so much more ruined that it will be even more difficult to reform. But the problem is bigger.

The year 2023 will not be 2003, Lula’s first year. It should be the tenth year of an impoverished economy. Without a shock plan right away, the next president could lose his entire government.

Government finances are in worse shape. It will not be easy to make the adjustment “Letter to the Brazilians”. The federal revenue around the year 2003 was 17.9% of GDP, the same as in the less abnormal recent triennium (2017-2019). But the expenditure is higher, 3.9% of the higher GDP, mostly (75%) due to spending on Social Security and other mandatory social benefits. The fiscal surplus was 2.3% of GDP; now, there is a deficit of 1.6% of GDP. The debt interest expense is higher. Public investment and spending on science turn to dust.

Fixing this will depend on cutting certain expenses, increasing others, large relocation. More taxes. Realistic rule for controlling expenses and debt. Sounds like bullshit. It’s almost a revolution. Today, it seems almost unfeasible.

In addition, things will not go without changes that create a functioning market economy (especially in taxes and trade liberalization). Changes that reduce inequality in taxation and social spending. A smart program of development incentives is necessary, but at the moment it seems almost a luxury, given the penury and the scale of the ruin of institutions and governance.

This immense change depends on preparation and at least tacit agreements, which must be stitched together in the campaign. It’s not just a matter of advertising.

We are on the brink of a process of “Brazilianization”, chronic political fracture and socioeconomic ruin, our version of what is seen to a greater or lesser degree in “Venezuelization” and “Argentinization” — the “Venezuela risk”, by the way, has grown with the pocketnarism. The power elites don’t care, now dedicated to setting up electoral schemes. So, it’s going to be bullshit.