Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: The privatization of Eletrobras and the mumunha of Petrobras

How long can a Petrobras privatization process take? Eletrobras started in 2017, started again in 2019 and is not over yet. The last legal step can be taken next week. The sale would then take place in July.

In the case of Eletrobras, some tortoises entered the privatization law, some hereditary captaincies, the obligation to build thermoelectric plants with private benefits and vices and appropriations of the public good (including efficiency). Center work.

The sale of Petrobras, more complicated, could be an opportunity for more mummunity. Who knows, Russian oligarchy-level mamata.

Overkill? It’s been four years since we discussed coup in the market queue, like today, as if commenting on the weather forecast. Imagine what an autocrat allied with negotiator parliamentarians can do.

The privatization announcement was, of course, a campaign act, a smokescreen and a tantrum by Jair Bolsonaro, who was unable to get his hands on the company and wants to get his fury over gasoline and diesel prices off his back.

Perhaps it will take a back seat if some opinion poll shows people’s aversion to the sale of the company, perhaps unlikely given the anger at the increases. In 2019, 65% of the electorate was against the sale of Petrobras, according to Datafolha.

Bolsonaro also sort of says to the owners of the money and interested parties in general “look at what I’m doing here, look how liberal I’m going to be”, he, who didn’t privatize even the Mint, road or cow’s path.

But the thing will take time. No major gimmicks, at least a couple of years.

Michel Temer announced the idea of ​​privatizing Eletrobras in August 2017 and lowered a mess of legal rules during 2018. Weak, with the rope of impeachment around his neck and an election ahead, he failed.

Bolsonaro signed a project to privatize Eletrobras in 2019. Without parliamentary support and with an epidemic at the bow, the plan took a backseat. In 2021, under the regency of the centrão, he himself took a provisional measure to Congress. The thing was approved in June last year, with the tortoises from the thermoelectric plants.

The Federal Audit Court (TCU) analyzes the legality of the sale and the minimum price. The government doesn’t need the TCU’s approval, but it thinks it’s safer to obtain the “nihil obstat” in order to avoid having to go to court. On the 18th, the approval of the process must be voted on.

The government is not exactly going to sell Eletrobras. He will increase the company’s capital, sell new shares, which he will not be able to buy, enough to become a minority.

Want to sell soon. It is speculated that August is a weak month (holidays in the rich world) and late for an operation of this size. It doesn’t seem like a hindrance. But the idea that an eventual PT government can reverse privatization is something that will give cause for thought.

Anyway, when it wanted and with the support of liberal-physiologism, the government arranged a privatization in a year and a half or two.

The case of Petrobras is more complicated. The company needs to be divided in order to avoid creating a quasi-private monopoly. There are difficult issues, from the division of fields to research information, as well as new regulations for the sector.

Petrobras and the oil sector are cash cows for the government if managed well. Depending on what will become of democracy in the country, it may also be the object of more robbery or other gimmicks.

In a decade, who knows if it will be profitable or if it will be worth anything: it is a polluting business, with prices subject to global political madness and a cartel run by dictatorships or something similar, like Saudi Arabia and its now ally Russia. .

This is serious business. So it’s not for Jair Bolsonaro