Social media lends itself to simplifications. There you often read sketchy descriptions of people with this phenomenon almost as a swear word wanting to describe someone who thinks they are super smart, know it all, but in reality it’s the exact opposite. The Dunning-Kruger effect is serious business. It is named after two American psychologists who presented their theory in 1999 in a paper. According to her, people with little knowledge overestimate themselves because they are unable to realize the extent of their ignorance. “It’s important that there’s public awareness of this issue,” Dunning said recently on a Scientific American podcast. falsely that his cognitive abilities are greater than they actually are. It’s not about judging other people negatively.”

As much as this obvious phenomenon is sometimes questioned or even ridiculed by experts, it has found a huge response among the general public. Perhaps it is because they have all had the experience of being interlocutors with little idea of ​​the subject they are discussing, but with enormous arrogance, as if they were the most beggars on earth. “You come across this quite often in everyday life,” says social psychologist Hans-Peter Erb, from the Helmut Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces in Hamburg. “Those who shout the loudest are usually the ones who have the least knowledge.”

Ignorance of incompetence

The paradoxical tendency to overestimate oneself can be dangerous. First of all for the person himself, when he makes a medical diagnosis after a Google search or thinks he is the ultimate stock market expert because he watched three training videos. Secondarily for others, when eg an 18 year old novice driver thinks he is better than everyone else. But also for companies, when employees do not realize the scope of the consequences of their actions. According to the two American psychologists the phenomenon is based on the fact that people are generally bad at realistically evaluating their knowledge, skills or performance. According to studies, over 90% of American car drivers are convinced that they are above average drivers. But even when watching football, when discussing economic issues or exchanging views on the climate crisis, it often seems that people are quick to believe that they know best.

Dunning-Kruger discovered this phenomenon in a series of experiments with students at Cornell University, who were asked to fill out questionnaires and then rate how well they did compared to others. Many continued to believe they were much better, even when shown the questionnaires of the best of the participants. Even then they were unable to recognize their own incompetence or to recognize and admit the competence of those with more specialized knowledge. More experiments have shown that beginners approach things with respect. But once they acquire the first little skills they tend to overestimate their own abilities. A little bit of experience, a little bit of selfishness, the human ego is freed and distanced from reality. But why is there such a distortion of the real picture, when it can have so many negative consequences?

A career booster, but a hindrance to learning

“In principle, overconfidence boosts self-esteem and confidence in our abilities,” explains Hamburg expert Erb. “And those with more self-confidence tend to achieve more. People with confidence in their abilities often go further in their careers than smarter but less successful people. This is also because of the influence they have on others. People with overconfidence self-confidence are often perceived as particularly competent and decisive”. Dunning-Kruger syndrome has not been recorded in the specialized literature, perhaps because it seems so insignificant. More than 400 years ago, however, the English poet William Shakespeare included the following line in his comedy As You Like It: “A fool thinks he is wise, but a wise man knows he is a fool.” (“The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool”).

In addition, there have been criticisms of the original 1999 study. In particular, last year mathematician Eric Gaze from Bowdoin College in Brunswick, USA, pointed out in “The Conversation”, a platform for contributions from researchers and academics, that the mathematical approach used to proof of result may have been incorrect. According to Gaze, the calculation method overestimates 25% of participants. David Dunning responded by saying that only the original study was considered for the mathematician’s criticism, and a series of other experiments and analyzes followed. Dunning and Kruger were awarded the 2000 satirical Nobel Prize in Psychology “for their lighthearted report Clumsy and Uninformed: How Difficulties Recognizing Our Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Evaluations.” Their discovery, however, is not without significance and is by no means a satire. Many unpleasant situations, experiences and wrong impressions in social, scientific and above all political life would have been prevented if everyone had, at least at least, “know yourself”…

Editor: Irini Anastasopoulou