With the new wave of the pandemic being a reality, and the number of deaths due to COVID-19 reaching very high levels having exceeded 5 million, the question has recently been raised whether all the losses due to the pandemic are actually reported, or whether the true losses are even greater. The Doctors of the Therapeutic Clinic of the Medical School of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens Theodora Psaltopoulou, Panos Malandrakis, Giannis Danasis and Thanos Dimopoulos (Rector of EKPA) summarize a recent publication of Harvard University in the USA that reviews the estimated accuracy in recording deaths due to the pandemic.
In 2020, 51 countries recorded an average of 3,140 more pandemic-related deaths than in other years, with the authors commenting that in some countries this number may actually triple and not be properly recorded, as in Ecuador. and Bolivia, as some deaths may not have been attributed to the pandemic. The United States recorded the highest number of unexplained deaths in 2020, reaching 50,876. The ratio of additional deaths to the average of other years was used to identify countries that are likely to underestimate the number of pandemic deaths.
The most likely countries to record lower-than-actual deaths were Bolivia with 2.64 times more deaths in 2020 than in previous years, Ecuador with 2.53, Peru with 2.17, followed by Mexico (0, 95), Indonesia (0.94), the United Kingdom (0.9), Spain (0.83). Respectively less likely to “lose” from the recording of pandemic-related deaths were Japan (0.01), Denmark (0.03), South Korea (0.04), Finland (0.07), but also Greece with 0.10 ratio of unexplained deaths compared to previous years, demonstrating the correct and complete recording of pandemic-related deaths.
In terms of rates, Peru had 160% more unexplained deaths and countries such as Spain, Mexico and Poland had rates of between 50% and 100% respectively, while the US was about in the middle of the list with 9.5% additional deaths. . Some countries with very strict measures recorded an average of 59% more unexplained deaths. In addition, countries with insufficient medical facilities to manage the pandemic probably recorded fewer related deaths, with an average of 53% additional unexplained deaths, while countries with better pre-pandemic infrastructure accounted for 23%.
In conclusion, the validity of recording COVID-19 pandemic-related deaths seems to be related both to the socio-economic status of each country and to the severity of the initial waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in each country. In addition, it is worth noting the lack of commonly accepted definitions of performance and calculation of pandemic deaths. For example, there are no specific guidelines from international health organizations to determine the causal link between a death and the underlying COVID-19 infection or the time it takes from the diagnosis of COVID-19 to death to be attributed. in SARS-CoV-2. Consolidation of definitions at international, or at least at European, level is imperative.
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