Moving average of new hospitalizations for Covid in SP rises 74% in 3 weeks

Data from the SP Covid-19 Info Tracker platform, created by researchers from USP and Unesp with support from Fapesp to monitor the evolution of the pandemic, show that the moving average of new hospitalizations (ICU and ward) increased by 74% in the state of São Paulo in three weeks. The 6th and 27th of May were compared, when the averages reached 176 and 306, respectively.

The index is a reflection of the increase in cases recorded in recent days. In the previous weeks —the 13th and 20th of the same month—, the moving averages recorded were 191 and 238, respectively.

In relation to the percentage of occupancy of ICU and ward beds observed in the same period, the increase was also 74%.

On May 27, 2,276 patients were hospitalized with suspected or confirmed Covid-19 in the state, against 1,307 on May 6. On May 20, admissions totaled 1,713 and, seven days earlier, 1,466.

“The data indicate the formation of a new wave of Covid, less lethal but still very aggressive in relation to the speed of new contagions. In recent weeks, there has been a 74% increase in hospitalizations for Covid in the state, in addition to the extrapolation of the rate ceiling of transmission in the same period, leading to an unbridled increase of new infected by the disease”, says Wallace Casaca, coordinator of the platform.

“As generating agents of this advance, there are the abandonment of basic sanitary measures, such as the use of masks, the loss of natural and vaccinal immunity over the last four months, stagnation of the application of booster doses and the advance of new sublines of the omicron, more transmissible and prone to escape. It is necessary to redouble care, including those who acquired the disease at the beginning of the year”.

In the capital of São Paulo, the moving average of new admissions (considering ICU and ward) rose from 72, on May 6, to 122 — a jump of 69% in 21 days. In comparisons between May 27 and the previous seven and 14 days, the increases were of the order of 37% and 58%, respectively.

The increase was also maintained in the number of hospitalized patients. As of May 27, 959 patients were occupying ICU or ward beds in the city. Three weeks earlier, that number was 57% lower—610.

state

capital of São Paulo

According to the bulletin of the State Department of Health, between the 6th and 27th of May, the state recorded 75,412 new cases of Covid and 853 deaths. In the city of São Paulo, 27,424 were infected and 189 died.

On May 27, the transmission rate (Rt) of Covid-19 in the state of São Paulo was at 1.33, that is, 100 people infected could spread the disease to another 133 healthy people, increasing the chain of transmission of progressive way. On the same date, the capital of São Paulo had an Rt (rate of contagion) of 1.28.

At the beginning of the month, on May 6, the Rt was at 0.96 in the state and 0.86 in the city of São Paulo. This index must remain below 1 for the number of cases to decline.

For Marcia Castro, scientist, professor of demography at the Harvard School of Public Health, member of the Covid-19 BR Observatory and columnist for Sheetit is difficult to say if it will be a new wave, but the scenario is worrying.

“With colder temperatures, people spending more time indoors, with a feeling that the pandemic has passed, without a mass campaign to raise public awareness and with the stagnation of vaccine coverage, this increase is worrying”, says the scientist. .

“Data from other countries show that people who have already had Covid-19 can be reinfected, even if vaccinated. Although the symptoms may be mild, there is a risk of infecting other people, and there is a risk of long-term Covid. [permanência de sintomas após a infecção]. Therefore, care with the use of good quality masks indoors should be the norm and not the exception”, he adds.

New wave?

In the opinion of Julio Croda, an infectious disease specialist, researcher at Fiocruz and president of the Brazilian Society of Tropical Medicine, there has been a substantial increase in cases in recent days and it is already possible to see the beginning of a new wave not only in São Paulo, but throughout the world. country.

“The question is: what will be the magnitude of this wave? We are entering this scenario because it is a moment of respiratory viruses. It is not just coronavirus, but we have a high distribution of other viruses. The respiratory syncytial in children under four years of age is burst. In adults, rhinovirus, influenza, metapneumovirus”, points out the researcher.

“If you do a search around you, you will see that there is at least one person who has tested positive for Covid or has flu-like symptoms”, he says.

“In terms of hospitalization, there was an increase, but it is necessary to observe a few more weeks. In Brazil the impact is not so great in terms of hospitalization and ICU and ward beds. Perhaps, the impact of this wave is much smaller in terms of hospitalization and deaths, because the ômicron has already had an important wave and what is circulating now is the [subvariante] BA.2”, says Croda.

According to the specialist, a high vaccination coverage — mainly the third dose up to 50 years, which is low — and the application of the fourth dose to the elderly, who skates, are important to ensure a lower impact in terms of hospitalizations and deaths.

The specialist recommends the use of a mask and physical distance to those who need to go to events with agglomeration, especially people who belong to risk groups.

“It is expected that Covid-19 will increasingly remain an endemic disease, in seasonal periods, but with decreasing severity and lethality”, says Croda.