The world is preparing to officially exceed the limit of 5 million deaths from covid-19, a number that is definitely higher.
After this symbolic limit, there are still questions about the continuation of the pandemic, the answers to which will depend heavily on vaccination.
How many are dead?
The actual death toll from covid-19 worldwide is apparently greater than 5 million. This report is based on official data released by countries. However, the World Health Organization warns that given the high mortality associated with covid-19, the actual death toll could be two or three times higher.
According to an estimate by The Economist, covid-19 has caused about 17 million deaths so far.
“This report seems more credible to me,” said Arno Fontane, an epidemiologist at the Pasteur Institute and a member of the French Scientific Council.
Whatever the actual death toll from the new coronavirus, it is certainly lower than other epidemics: it is estimated that 50 to 100 million people died from the Spanish flu from 1918 to 1919, and within 40 years of AIDS more than 36 million people die.
However, covid-19 “caused many deaths in a short period of time”, comments Jean-Claude Manugera, virologist of the Pasteur Institute.
And “this could have been more dramatic if no action had been taken, first by restricting the movement of people and then by vaccination,” Fontane said.
Have we reached a point of stabilization?
The emergence of a new virus generally takes place in two phases, explains Professor Fontane.
In the beginning we have the “explosive phase of the epidemic”: the virus invades a population that has not come in contact with it again. This is followed by a stabilization phase because herd immunity has been achieved, and since then scientists say the virus is endemic.
With covid-19 “it is the first time in the history of pandemics that we make so much effort worldwide to accelerate the transition” from one phase to another, according to Fontane.
The acceleration is due to vaccination: “it allowed the population to be artificially immunized against a virus they did not know about and thus in 18 months what normally lasts three to five years with many more dead.”
For this reason, the continuation will depend on the level of vaccination in each country and the effectiveness of the vaccines he uses, the epidemiologist predicts: “Undoubtedly we are a few months away from the time when there will be a layer everywhere. “What is difficult to say is whether this will be thick enough.”
“The virus will continue to circulate. “The goal we have today is not to eliminate it, but to protect it from its serious forms,” ​​Fontane continues.
“The goal is for covid-19 not to drive to either the hospital or the cemetery,” said Manugera.
What is the future of the countries?
Experts expect that the pandemic will eventually change: the waves will stop in the industrialized countries, with high vaccination rates, and the epidemic outbreaks will mainly affect the unvaccinated.
“For industrialized countries, I think we are heading for seasonal covid-19 epidemics, which may be more serious than the flu epidemics in the beginning,” Fontane said. in that offered by the disease.
Other countries such as China and India that have strong vaccination capabilities may follow suit.
After all, the countries that had chosen the “zero case” strategy, which ultimately failed due to the transmissibility of the delta strain, have now embarked on a “vaccination race”, Fontane notes.
Result: Australia and New Zealand are approaching vaccination rates in other countries.
However, scenarios for countries with low vaccination coverage, such as African countries, are more difficult to predict.
The “strong outbreak” of covid-19 in Eastern Europe confirms that without adequate vaccination coverage, populations are exposed to “serious epidemics with an impact on the hospital system,” Fontane said.
But the rise in cases in Western Europe, despite the high rate of vaccination, pushes scientists to be careful.
“There must be no Eurocentric conception: in a pandemic we must think of the whole planet. “And for now the pandemic has not stopped,” warns Manougera.
New variants?
A major concern is the emergence of new coronavirus strains that will be resistant to vaccines.
Today the Delta strain prevails and has almost eliminated the previous ones, such as Alpha, while it did not allow others to spread, such as Mi or Lambda.
More than the appearance of distinct strains, scientists expect Delta to mutate and possibly become vaccine-resistant.
“Delta is the most widespread executive. So, statistically, another executive may appear from this “, Manougera explains.
The British authorities are already monitoring a Delta subsidiary, AY4.2. However, at present there is no evidence that vaccines are less effective.
“It is important that we continue to monitor the gene sequence” of coronavirus strains, Manougera said. This will allow us to “detect the appearance of mutated strains fairly quickly and understand if they are more dangerous, more contagious, if the (vaccine) immunity is still working.”
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