Far fewer deaths and hospitalizations compared to Delta show data – Vaccines do not prevent mild disease, but offer significant reductions in mortality
The consequences of Omicron sub-variants Professor Elias Mosialos analyzed in a Facebook article, revealing valuable details about the executive that seems to be prevailing lately.
More detail:
B4 / B5 coronavirus subtypes in South Africa prevailed a few weeks before their spread to European countries. The same thing happened with the original Omicron executive who initially dominated South Africa. It is therefore useful to consider the effects of the new sub-variables in a country where we have a lot of data and for a significant period of time.
The demographic data of the SE are different and more favorable than those of European countries. The same is true of the population exposure to previous waves (which preceded the Delta and which were larger) which were higher compared to European countries. We also know that only 32% of South Africans have had two doses of the vaccine.
So what do we see in the attached graph, which shows the total number of deaths from coronavirus infection in hospitals, according to data from the National Institute of Public Health (NICD) for South Africa (Analysis of data by Pieter Streicher)?
We see first that in the last year in South Africa (SE) the two Omicron waves had significantly smaller impacts than the Delta. And the wave of B4 / B5 much smaller compared to that of Omicron 1 and 2 in terms of deaths recorded in hospitals.
Exposure to previous strains -even micron- does not prevent mild B4 / B5 infections. We also know that vaccines are not effective in preventing mild infections. Nevertheless, it seems that the combination of previous exposure and vaccination or only previous exposure or only vaccination offer significant protection in reducing mortality.
I will remind you here that the initial laboratory studies of universities in Hong Kong and Israel for Omicron in December 2021, showed the effect mainly on the upper respiratory tract. I then pointed out that the combination of these studies and trends in South Africa shows that Omicron is likely to have less mortality than Delta. Many had disagreed and thought the effects would be greater. Of course, they were refuted based on the multiple data that we now have from both clinical and epidemiological studies.
South Africa is obviously different from Europe. But when in one country we observe certain trends and each coming wave causes smaller effects, then it makes sense to expect similar trends (not a corresponding number of deaths per 1000 inhabitants) in other countries as well. We expect this because, for example, European countries, despite having worse demographic data, have better health systems, a much higher rate of vaccinations and much greater access to antiviral drugs.
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