The pandemic is becoming more and more predictable, says Gikas Majorkinis

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For now, notes the assistant professor of Epidemiology, the subvariants are not a cause for concern, “but they are not something we will underestimate either.”

Scientists are concerned by the appearance of new subvariants BQ.1, BQ1.1, which come from the B5 variant of the “Omicron” mutation, which have been recorded in several countries and last week were also detected in Greece.

“The new variants are something relatively expected and it is positive that since last December the variants coming are “children” of Omicron and not of a different branch, as we saw in previous waves.

This is a good indication that the epidemic is becoming more and more predictable”, assistant professor of Epidemiology and member of the Committee of Experts Gikas Majorkinis emphasizes to APE-MBE. For now, he notes, they do not inspire concern, “but it is not something we will underestimate.”

What is the main scenario

According to the scientists, the epidemiological increase of BQ.1, BQ1.1 substrains is to be expected, as the Sars-Cov-2 virus will continue to mutate and become even more contagious. The EU Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) reported that over 50% of SARS-CoV-2 infections will be due to BQ.1/BQ.1.1. by December and up to 80% by February 2023.

“So far we know that they have an advantage of around 30% over the “mother” variant B5, because they are also its “children”. This will logically lead to their dominance, this is the prediction and the main scenario. How strong the winter surge will be as a result of these subvariations is difficult to estimate. At the moment we don’t see anything dramatic in other countries that are ahead of us”, Gikas Majorkinis told APE-MPE.

Regarding transmissibility, he said it “goes hand-in-hand with escape from immunity” and “seems to a significant extent to escape”. That is, BQ.1/BQ.1.1 escapes more than B5 in relation to whatever immunity is currently present in the population. As the professor mentions, there are two major categories of immunity. One is the so-called sterile immunity, i.e. immunity where you don’t get infected at all, and the other is immunity against severe disease. “Sterilization is declining significantly and we know that and that’s the immune escape we’re seeing. However, the immunity against severe disease and death is important and remains.

Those over 60 who are at even greater risk, he adds, it is extremely important to refresh their immunity with updated vaccines. Mr Majorkinis emphasizes that most of the population is immune. “In the summer, more than 50% of the population was infected with the B4/5 variants of Omicron and we did not see any particular pressure on the health system. I think we have reached the ceiling, that is, in the summer we saw the maximum we could see and because the vaccines and treatments we have against the disease are very effective, I don’t see pressure on the health system that would lead to the adoption of horizontal protection measures” . After all, he adds, after 2.5 years of the pandemic, the world knows how to protect itself.

The efficacy of monoclonal antibodies

Mr. Majorkinis explains that “monoclonal antibodies as therapeutic regimens are in a race against variants because it is an artificial immunity and new variants escape it. Every time they need updating. It appears that in these subvariants some of the monoclonals that were active for earlier strains are no longer. As the new strains spread, there will logically be new monoclonals that will cover it.”

RES-EMP

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