Opinion – Atila Iamarino: Another wave of cases is approaching and we are still lucky

We are still in the period of uncertainty about the omicron variant, seeing its withering scattering, while several factors mask the seriousness of the wave of cases sweeping the world.

The most worrying thing is its speed. In South Africa, omicron took less than three weeks to cause a worse case rise than delta, the most transmissible variant we’ve seen, did in three months. In the UK, in early December, it was estimated that the omicron would become the dominant strain by January. A week later, it has already caused the first death and is expected to cause most infections in London from this Wednesday (15th). And given the progression of the disease, cases should only begin to reflect in hospitalizations for Englishmen in late December.

Its growth in Denmark, Norway and Germany has been as fast as or faster than in early 2020, before we had distance measures, masks and vaccines. We’re seeing lightning, but we still haven’t heard the thunder it must cause.

Another complicating factor is that the first cases were more concentrated among younger South Africans, such as children, who, as they are less vulnerable to Covid, do not generate many hospitalizations. In addition, omicron can be transmitted between cured and vaccinated in an unprecedented way. It has caused up to eight times more cases of reinfection in the UK. And, according to the latest data from South Africa, it appears to have reduced the protection of two doses of Pfizer’s RNA vaccine against virus infection to 30% and against hospitalization to 70%. That is, many vaccinated and cured are being infected, but a smaller part of them need hospitalization, thanks to partial immunity. As a result, this omicron wave has generated 30% fewer admissions per case than the previous delta wave caused in South Africa.

Here in Brazil, where the vaccination rate is high, we can expect an even greater reduction in hospitalizations. But counting on that is counting on luck. In the interior of the country, we still have very low rates of vaccination. In Rondônia and Pará, Covid is starting to run out of ICU beds again, probably because of the delta. And even where the proportion of hospitalizations is smaller, if the wave of cases is huge, there will still be many patients in need of beds. Dismantled beds that will be operated by exhausted and traumatized professionals. Therefore, we need a massive campaign for the vaccination of missing Brazilians and for the adoption of the booster dose, which has already been shown to restore much of the protection against omicrons, but still has low adherence.

In the opposite direction, instead of a pro-vaccination organization and an awareness of the wave that we must face, we see preparations for events with agglomerations, in an atmosphere of “it’s over”. And good luck monitoring our situation via the Ministry of Health. The daily reports on the pandemic highlight the millions of “recovered”, diverting attention from the more than 600,000 who have not recovered. And Covid’s case panel is down. He was overthrown by “hackers” who “kidnapped” the Ministry’s data, erasing the data with a login and password, without asking for ransom, while taking down the vaccination certificates on the eve of the new measures that would require a vaccination passport. A measure that has been proven to increase vaccination where it was adopted.

We have another month to prepare ourselves to face the omicron and the Minister of Health is more concerned with preserving the freedom of those who do not want to be vaccinated than our lives.