World Cup and New Year’s Eve festivities will keep Covid cases high until January

by

The crowds for holiday shopping, watching the World Cup games and the Christmas and New Year parties will boost the rise in cases of Covid-19 – already noticed a few weeks ago in the country – until January. This is what the experts interviewed by the Sheet🇧🇷

“In fact, they are already boosting it. What we see is much smaller than what actually happens. These phenomena cause agglomeration, a lot of movement of people at a time of increase in cases and highly infectious variants, and a breakdown in vaccination coverage, especially boosters. This contributes a lot to the spread of the virus”, says Evaldo Stanislau de Araújo, infectologist at the Hospital das Clínicas in São Paulo.

For Araújo, it is still impossible to predict when the transmission of the coronavirus will start to slow down. According to the doctor, a characteristic of the current moment of Covid-19 is that the waves are getting closer to each other and bring a greater number of reinfections.

“People have lost their fear, normalized Covid-19 and treated it as if it were the flu, which is a mistake. Even mild forms of the disease can have future consequences, such as neurological, cardiological and respiratory damage, in addition to prolonged Covid And there is a possibility that reinfection will lead to serious forms and late complications”, says the HC infectologist.

Containment measures, such as the use of a mask –especially in a closed environment, without air renewal and with agglomeration– the complete vaccination schedule, including booster doses, are essential for the control of Covid-19

For parties and meetings, it is worth warning: for greater security, it is recommended to test all guests on the same day of the event. “Today, we have the facility to find self-test available in pharmacies”, recalls Araújo.

For Wallace Casaca, coordinator of the SP Covid-19 Info Tracker platform, created by researchers from USP and UNESP to monitor the evolution of the pandemic, we will live with occasional increases in new cases until January.

“There is underreporting due to lack of testing and public policies to encourage testing. And self-tests are not reported. These factors reduce accuracy when measuring the real impact of the disease. On the other hand, it is possible to measure an increase substantial increase in new cases of Covid, in addition to the increase in hospitalizations and deaths, although at lower levels compared to the waves of the disease in 2020, 2021 and early 2022”, says Casaca.

“In countries that had outbreaks of the disease due to the same subvariants, Covid took about a month to reach the peak of cases, remained on a plateau for a few days and started the process of decline, which took about 20 days. the pace of growth of cases is not the same in all regions of the country, although the consolidated in Brazil currently maintains a growth trend”, explains the coordinator of the platform.

In the assessment of Alexandre Naime Barbosa, professor at Unesp (Paulista State University) and vice president of the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases, the peak of Covid cases should be reached in two weeks, will remain on a plateau until the first half of January and then begin to slow down.

“That’s because the end of year festivities are moments of a lot of transmission. I’ve already been consulted by large companies who asked whether or not they should have a fraternization party and I said no. It’s not yet the time to expose a population that may be vulnerable infection by the virus”, says Barbosa.

The scientist points out that the rule also applies to family parties. “Things that expose vulnerable people are inadvisable.” According to the doctor, whoever goes to these events should avoid contact with the elderly and immunosuppressed.

According to Marcelo Gomes, coordinator of Fiocruz’s InfoGripe, the situation is one of sharp growth with an impact on hospitalizations. “Where it will reach and the consequences we will only know with time. When it starts to decrease, we will have to look back and see what the magnitude was.”

For Gomes, the rise in cases of Covid-19 should impact the beginning of next year. “There are a lot of people in commercial centers, at street fairs, in shopping malls. The travel associated with Christmas and New Year will also cause a great mix, including taking scenarios from a certain location to impact other cities.”

Marcelo Gomes emphasizes that the scenarios are different in the regions of the country. “In the state of São Paulo, for example, you can already see a slowdown; in Rio de Janeiro too, but more slowly. In other states, it is still the initial phase and the number of cases may reach its peak precisely at New Year’s Eve of the year,” he warns.

The InfoGripe Fiocruz Bulletin, released on November 29, maintains the alert for the growth of cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome by Covid-19 in all regions of the country. This trend is especially present in the adult population and in the age groups above 60 years.

Until the 47th epidemiological week —between November 20th and 26th— 20 of the 27 federative units showed moderate growth in the long-term trend: Alagoas, Bahia, Ceará, Federal District, Goiás, Maranhão, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Pará, Paraíba, Paraná, Pernambuco, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio Grande do Sul, Rio de Janeiro, Roraima, Santa Catarina, Sergipe and São Paulo.

You May Also Like

Recommended for you