Scientists are using mathematical models to estimate the extent of the micron scattering we will be facing in the near future, and the predictions are ominous. The peak is expected from the very first days of January.
The Doctor of Molecular Biology Giannis Prassas, from Toronto, where in just 3 weeks the Omicron mutation dominated, reveals to SKAI how the new mutation will spread – and in our country: “Such are the characteristics of the virus and such are the similarities of immunity that countries in the West have , it is quite possible to see in Greece what we see in other countries. That is, whether the doubling time is 2.9 days, or 3.5, or 4.5 days will not matter so much because in an aggressive nature, this will mean that we will experience a very large wave infections. “
Based on this assumption – to double the cases every 3 days – which is a much more optimistic scenario than what happens in England, if we predicted the spread of Omicron in our country, our model leads to the following:
On December 20, 26 cases of the Omicron mutation were recorded. On December 26, they will have risen to 104, on New Year’s Day they will be 416, on January 7 they will reach 1664 and on January 13 they will have jumped to 6,656. These are the cases that will be recorded by EODY ..
Remember what he said to SKAI, Gikas Majorkinis, on how many real cases there are in the community: “Usually we estimate that once we are over 25 – we estimate that there may be 4-5 times more than what we see in the community.”
So if the number of people with Omicron’s disease is five times that of the system, yesterday we had 130. On December 26 it will be 780, on January 1 it will be 3,120, on January 7 it will be 12,480, while on January 13 it will be 50,000 people with the mutation Ομικρον.
“It is almost certain that the cases are much more than we have caught. Especially what we call orphan cases. This means that the virus is circulating in the community. Such are its characteristics that we will definitely see in Greece, in the near future, the cases will slowly increase and when they start to increase we will see an aggressive increase “, says the Doctor of Molecular Biology Giannis Prassas.
The real Omicron cases in our country are estimated at much more, and from the fact that in Greece, only 6% of the confirmed cases are checked for the Omicron mutation.
“There are more cases than we have diagnosed – that’s for sure, it happened to all executives – we do not track all cases every day,” says the professor of pulmonology, Intensive Care, Theodoros Vasilakopoulos.
The spread of Omicron in England is unprecedented.
This frightens the scientists in Greece as well, who see that the health system is already under great pressure.
The “Delta” variant took 6 weeks to displace the “Alpha”. “Omicron” seems to need half to displace “Delta”. Whatever happens to us, will happen to us very quickly. “Even less dangerous is the increased transmissibility that can lead to many more hospitalizations and deaths in a short period of time,” said the Assistant Professor of Public Health. Theodoros Lytras.
“Our capabilities are now specific – small, in relation to the huge needs created by the pandemic. Do not be surprised if you see intubated in the corridors of hospitals, even in rooms of clinics … “, adds the ICU Director of Papanikolaou Hospital, Nikos Kapravelos
The pressure will be such that even the employees at EKAB warn that they will not be able to serve patients.
“In Attica, EKAB serves 1,000-1,100 cases per 24 hours, where about 100 are detected Covid with the predominance of Omicron we will have a large outbreak of cases, making EKAB difficult to cope with the increased needs,” said the President of EKAB Employees. George Mathiopoulos
Perhaps the only positive news coming from abroad is the effectiveness of the vaccines against the coronavirus and the Omicron mutation: “For Omicron it is the booster dose – the booster dose, we see that now their antibodies are so high that they cover too much well and in terms of the disease “, said to SKAI the Associate Professor of Epidemiology EKPA Theodora Psaltopoulou.
Those who have taken 2 doses .. in 6 months are protected by 64% by Delta and only 35% by Omicron. But those who have done the 3rd – booster dose, the percentage goes to 90% for Delta and 76% for Omicron. Recent research wants the booster dose of mRNA vaccines to multiply the antibodies in our body 25 to 37 times more, thus fighting the Omicron mutation.
“People who have been vaccinated with the 3rd dose, their immunity is largely restored, especially for the serious disease. “Especially for mRNA vaccines, we know that over 80% protection is against a serious disease”, emphasizes the Professor of Pharmacology of Democritus University, Evangelos Manolopoulos.
The boosting dose of the vaccine also significantly increases the amount of T-lymphocytes, the body’s natural defense that is considered to have a longer-term effect against the serious disease.
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