A survey by the Instituto Todos pela Saúde (ITpS) released this Wednesday (11) points out that the rate of tests with a positive result for Covid has been above 30% in the population over 40 years old for at least eight weeks in Brazil.
According to the analysis, which included more than 1.6 million tests carried out by the private laboratories HLAGyn, DB Molecular, the Dasa network and Sabin, positivity reaches 37% in some ranges, such as in the elderly over 70 years old. This means that about 4 out of 10 exams in this age group have a confirmed diagnosis of Covid.
The tendency, however, is for a decline in the coming weeks, according to researcher Anderson Brito, from ITpS. Brito says that the peak of positivity occurred in mid-December, when positive exams reached more than half of the total number of tests performed.
In children from zero to 4 years old, however, positivity remains low, with 10%.
The laboratory analysis also considered the possible variants of the virus circulating in the country. According to the research, the sequences available in the Gisaid database, deposited by institutions such as the Butantan Institute and Fiocruz, in SP and RJ, respectively, confirm that the dominant variant continues to be BQ.1, which arrived in the country in mid-October .
However, the same analysis found an increase in the frequency of the XBB lineage from mid-November. The lineage includes the new variant XBB.1.5, classified by the WHO (World Health Organization) as the most transmissible so far. The first confirmed case of XBB.1.5 was identified in a patient from Indaiatuba (SP) on the last day 5.
For Brito, the increase in cases in places like the United States, Europe and Asian countries serves as a warning for Brazil.
The virologist explains that they started to include in the reports produced by ITpS the observation of cases from other countries precisely to observe Covid trends. “The USA is today an important air exchange point with Brazil, and over there this variant [XBB.1.5] is already becoming dominant. This is for us to stay alert and try to understand what its spread could mean around here, “she said.
According to Brito, it is not yet possible to know for sure how it will behave here, but it is possible, considering the pattern of recent years, that cases in the country will continue in the coming weeks with a still high positivity until it decreases again. “Following the positivity week by week we see that, as much as there is a drop [da positividade], it is still at a very high level, so it is expected that it will take four to five weeks for it to fall completely, and then we may have another eight weeks with a reduction in cases and an increase again. It’s like a cycle,” she explains.
The analysis also pointed to a high incidence of Covid in the different states and regions of the country. According to ITpS, the rate of cases of the disease remains high in the Midwest, Southeast and South, with almost two thirds of the health macro-regions with an upward trend until the week of December 24th. In the week of December 31, however, the index dropped to 42.3%.
Considering the states with the highest incidence of cases in the last 30 days, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul and Roraima had an incidence above 200 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
The latest newsletter InfoGripe, from Fiocruz, released on January 5, pointed to a drop in Srag (severe acute respiratory syndrome) in adults across the country, compared to the last epidemiological week. Even so, the growth trend continues in at least 11 states.
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