Expressive dispersion of the Omicron strain of SARS-CoV-2 in the community of Thessaloniki, but also maintenance of the load of the Strain Delta show the latest measurements of the AUTh Wastewater Epidemiology Team in the municipal waste of the city.
From the analyzes of daily sewage sampling concerning the period 19/12 to 29/12, it appears that the viral load of the Omicron strain doubles every 1.86 days.
Overall, as shown in the diagrams presented by APE-MPE, within 10 days, the incidence of Omicron increased from 3.5% to 60.3% of all detectable strains. However, the comparison of the total viral load with that of Omicron shows that the spread of the Delta does not decrease from 19/12 onwards. This, as the members of the AUTh Team point out, is a point of concern, as the Delta strain is more contagious and is responsible for a significant burden on the health system during the period before the emergence of Omicron, especially in November.
The average value of the two most recent measurements, ie Tuesday 28/12 and Wednesday 29/12 is:
-Very increased (+ 87%) in relation to the average value of the two immediately preceding measurements, Sunday 26/12 and Monday 27/12.
-Very increased (+ 183%) compared to the average price of the previous Tuesday 21/12 and Wednesday 22/12.
“Rector of AUTh: Definitely a test before the meetings”
“The Omicron pandemic wave reached the city before the health system was even decompressed, as the Delta strain still has a significant dispersion and leads vulnerable groups and unvaccinated to hospitals. Even if the international data and predictions that confirm the prevalence of the Omicron strain are characterized by many cases but few hospitalizations, there is still a large number of people who have not been vaccinated. These citizens, especially if they belong to vulnerable groups, being almost certain that they will be infected, are not protected against a serious illness. If the admissions of people infected by the Delta continue, the city’s hospitals will be under pressure, which may intensify as the high transmission of Omicron and the vaccinated will not leave unaffected and the medical staff, a percentage of which will be out of service. in quarantine “, said to APE-MPE the rector of AUTh and scientifically responsible for the research project, Professor Nikos Papaioannou.
“The best we can do at the moment is to keep our travels and contacts to a minimum and to completely avoid any contact with people who belong to vulnerable groups. “In tonight and tomorrow’s family and friendly gatherings, everyone should protect their neighbor, be sure to undergo a self-diagnostic or rapid test before coming into contact with other people,” he pointed out.
“In recent days, there has been a huge increase in cases among young people and children. “Whether the new mutation causes more gastrointestinal manifestations and a greater viral load in the feces of the infected with greater excretion and concentration in the city’s sewage remains to be proven”, said the professor of Pediatrics – Infectious Diseases AUTh Emmanuel Roilidis.
“The evolution of the Omicron diaspora in Thessaloniki”
“In the period 18 to 22/12, which was still dominated by the Delta executive, the model of the AUTh sewage epidemiology team estimated that the number of unregistered cases (asymptomatic, etc.) was similar to the number of cases recorded by EODY. The estimate of that period showed about 57000 total infected people. Since then, however, the picture has changed dramatically as there is a progressive predominance of the Omicron strain, for which little is known about the distribution of the viral load of the cases during the days of the disease. Based on little information in the international literature, the viral load of Omicron cases can be up to 1000 times greater than that of the Delta and the development of infection in them is about 70 times faster. These new data of Omicron are already running in the model of AUTh but data from a few more days are needed to ensure the statistical significance and reliability of the estimates “, said the professor of Chemistry of AUTh Thodoris Karapantsios.
“Since the emergence of Omicron, the actual number of cases is higher than that recorded by the surveillance system as the infections mostly concern young and / or vaccinated people who have no symptoms. Also, infections in these individuals can not be recorded by genomic surveillance as the sampling there mainly involves people with a clinical picture. “Based on the above and the fact that wastewater analyzes are representative of the community as a whole and are done more quickly, we believe that only wastewater can show a more representative picture of the evolution of the spread and its rate in real time,” explained the associate professor. Molecular Microbiology of the Department of Veterinary Medicine, AUTh Chrysostomos Dovas.
“Last week there were some changes in the physical and chemical characteristics of wastewater mainly due to population fluctuations in the service area of ​​EELTH and sporadic rainfall in Thessaloniki. These changes did not affect the quantification of the viral load, however, they were taken into account during the rationalization phase of the measurements “, explained the head of the wastewater reception team at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, from the Laboratory of Environmental Engineering and Design of the Department of Civil Engineering. Maria Petala.
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