Opinion – Esper Kallás: The omicron experiment

Without ceasing to lament the enormous suffering caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, and for our lack of preparation for it, we are faced with the extraordinary trajectory of the Sars-CoV-2 virus.

In trying to establish itself as a perennial virus in humans, its new host since the end of 2019, it has been adapting to better fulfill this role. In the beginning, it moved freely, in
virgin soil, due to the lack of pre-existing natural defense in people.

Over time, it developed and fixed small alterations in its genetic sequence: mutations. The vast majority of these do not result in advantages for the virus, but some help in its spread. When that happens, the new variant manages to spread.

Which feature favors a variant? Its greater ability to multiply and, consequently, to be transmitted, puts it at an advantage in the “race”, making it prevail over the others.

It’s been that way until now. The virus has been undergoing adaptations since the beginning of the pandemic, allowing the emergence of variants with increasing transmission capacity. After the original virus, which caused the first wave, came the alpha variant, which spread quickly.

In Brazil, probably from the North region, the range was extended to the rest of the country, displacing the previous variants. But it was the delta variant that was shown to be able to replace all of the previous ones, making it responsible for over 95% of Covid-19 cases worldwide.

While the power of dissemination of the delta variant still amazes us, the omicron, with an unprecedented number of mutations, demonstrates that the adaptation of the virus can go further, adding unprecedented transmission capacity.

The new variant is replacing the delta in light steps. Furthermore, evidence is accumulating that it is a less aggressive variant, especially in vaccinated individuals.

Could the rapid spread of omicron replace the more aggressive and lethal variants or will it only cover up for a while the spread of delta? Could it serve as a defense stimulus, like a “weakened” virus vaccine helping to control the pandemic?

Careful assessments, particularly on Covid-19-related hospitalizations and deaths, will yield answers. And here it is fitting to lament the current inability of the Ministry of Health to compile and make available data, making the country navigate in the dark.

In other countries, omicron causes an explosive transmission cycle of approximately two months. However, the speed and price it will charge for admissions and deaths can vary, especially given the percentage of vaccinees in the population.

It is essential that everyone face the omicron with the utmost caution. History teaches us not to underestimate nature, which often has surprises in store. Just remember the Zika epidemic in 2015. What appeared to be a common febrile illness has proved devastating for many babies born to infected pregnant women.

Studying in depth what is going on is the only acceptable alternative.

Check the behavior of the new variant, looking for solutions even if they may seem unnecessary.

After all, it is to alleviate human suffering, save lives and prolong them with quality that the biomedical sciences have sought to counteract Darwinian natural selection.

I hope that in 2022 Brazilians recognize investments in education, science and health as priorities. Thus, in an important election year, everyone can charge them with candidates for managers.

Only then will Brazil have a better present and future.