“Compared to older variants, Omicron infections seem less likely to lead to a serious clinical outcome that requires hospitalization or ICU admission.” This is indicated by the analysis of the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) that was published today.
The ECDC points out that “although the current overall 14-day notification rate in the EU / EEA is 2,621 cases per 100,000 population, which is four times higher than the maximum observed during the pandemic to date, hospitalization rates and mortality is lower than the levels observed in older pandemic waves. ” The ECDC also notes that “although the reduction in severity is due in part to inherent characteristics of the virus, findings from vaccine efficacy studies have shown that vaccination plays an important role in preventing serious clinical outcomes from Omicron infection.” with the efficacy against a serious illness increasing significantly among those who have received three doses of the vaccine ”.
As the vaccination rate varies between EU / EEA countries (from 28.4% to 82.9%, average 69.4%) and given booster doses are still lower in most countries EU / EEA (below 60%), the expected impact of Omicron will vary, but countries with lower vaccination rates are expected to face the highest disease burden. In addition, given the very high levels of transmission from the community that occur regardless of total vaccine intake, resulting in many people becoming ill at the same time, countries with very high vaccination rates are also likely to experience significant periods of stress in their health care systems and functioning of society as a whole (mainly through absence from work and education).
According to the ECDC, the results of mathematical modeling show that there is a significant proportion of the population that remains vulnerable to severe outcomes in all EU / EEA countries, especially those with lower vaccination coverage. Static projections show that hospitalization and mortality are expected to have a proportionally greater impact among people aged 60 and over, but will also affect people under the age of 60. In response to the high incidence of Omicron, protection against the risk of high hospital load can be achieved by increasing overall vaccine intake, including rapid booster doses, especially in the elderly and at-risk population. In addition, vaccines and supplements provide additional long-term benefits to individuals and society (eg prevention of absenteeism from work or education and post-acute COVID-19 syndrome).
There are currently no data on the incidence of prolonged symptoms after COVID-19 due to Omicron, nor on whether it differs from the incidence of post-COVID-19 syndrome caused by older SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, the ECDC considers it “reasonable” that the high incidence of Omicron infection may be followed by a high incidence of post-COVID-19 status, with a proportionately higher incidence among those who have not been vaccinated.
Concluding, the ECDC emphasizes that “although we expect to move towards a more sustainable situation with COVID-19 circulating at manageable levels, we are currently in a state of emergency for public health and it is important to note that even in a phase after the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic could still cause periodic high levels of stress in healthcare systems. Therefore, multilevel surveillance, preparedness and response strategies to deal with COVID-19 will be necessary.
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