Does not wearing masks lead to the emergence of new variants of the coronavirus? Understand

The relaxation of the use of mask in closed environments in the state of São Paulo raised the alert for the Covid-19 pandemic. This is because the transmission of the virus can increase, resulting in an increase in the average of deaths and overload on the health system.

Another concern with the relaxation of the measure is the chance of a new variant of Sars-CoV-2 emerging. Experts and health organizations have already been saying that there is a high probability that new strains will emerge that could be more worrisome than those we have now.

For Christovam Barcellos, researcher at Fiocruz’s Covid-19 Observatory (Fundação Oswaldo Cruz), the problem is that not wearing masks favors the increase in cases and this, therefore, is related to the development of mutations.

“The variants always appear at times of greater transmission. In this way, the probability of a new variant occurring is exactly proportional to the number of cases that are being generated. If we generate millions of cases in Brazil in the coming weeks or months, it is well likely that a new strain will emerge”, he says.

The biggest dilemma that involves the emergence of a new variant is not knowing the impact it can bring to the current stage of the pandemic, which is going through a cooling down in Brazil, but showing signs of concern in other regions of the world.

“Every variant that arises are questions that arise: is it more or less lethal? Does it transmit more easily? Does it cause more severe cases? What is the clinical reaction of vaccinated and unvaccinated people?”, says Barcellos.

In previous cases, new strains of the virus managed to greatly worsen the epidemiological picture of the disease, as in the case of the omicron and delta. However, for Vitor Mori, a researcher at the University of Vermont, the development of these new variants that strongly impacted the increase in the transmission of the disease were few.

“If we look at the course of the pandemic, we see that there were five variants of concern: alpha, beta, delta, gamma and ômicron. This was in the course of two years of a pandemic that affected many people”, he says.

Therefore, the researcher believes that it is very difficult that the abandonment of mask use necessarily collaborates with the development of new strains. “I think it is perhaps a bit exaggerated to speak with conviction that removing the use of the mask generates new variants, because this is very difficult to predict and there are many factors that influence mutations”, he adds.

Even so, he reiterates that the suspension of the obligation to wear masks in closed places must collaborate with the circulation of the virus, one of the important factors for the mutations to occur.

A similar point is made by Fernando Spilki, virologist and coordinator of the Corona-Omics BR-MCTI Network, a laboratory project that sequences the genomes of samples of Sars-CoV-2 in Brazil.

“Any situation that keeps the virus in high circulation and with a very large number of cases is a circumstance that can lead to the possibility of the virus diversifying”, he says.

The virologist believes that it would not be the time to suspend the obligation to wear a mask in closed environments, as these spaces provide a greater risk of transmission of the pathogen, something that is not so great in open environments without large agglomerations.

“The circulation of the virus is still very high and, with measures that provide this, there is a greater possibility of the virus finding ramifications throughout its evolution, being able to generate new variants”, he says.

Another factor that could enter into the analysis of the impact that the flexibility of masks has on possible mutations is vaccination coverage. In Brazil, an average of 73% have already completed the first vaccination cycle, but only 33% had the booster dose.

For Spilki, the problem is that current vaccines are not very effective in stopping the transmission of the virus, but rather in preventing symptomatic or critical illness. Therefore, the continued use of a mask, especially in closed environments, would be important, since it is an equipment that, when used correctly, can stop the transmission of the pathogen.

Another aspect is that the emergence of new variants has already represented a change in the effectiveness of vaccines, as in the case of the Ômicron, where it was seen that the vaccination schedule would need to be three doses and not just two. Situations like this make the epidemiological picture remain unstable even with an already high vaccination coverage, making it necessary to continue with other protective measures.

“Every variant affects the picture of vaccine coverage. For example, it would be 80% vaccinated in Brazil if the immunizers used today were capable of immunizing the person, but this is not happening, because there are variants with immune escape”, says Barcellos.

Previously, the WHO (World Health Organization) had already stated that the use of the vaccine alone would not be enough to stop the transmission of the virus, so other measures such as the use of masks are necessary.

The organization had also already indicated that it is “very optimistic” to believe that the omicron will be the last variant of Sars-CoV-2, a position reiterated by Spilki.

“We don’t have any evidence to think the opposite of what the WHO says. What we can do is to stop the process of evolution of the virus with adequate control measures. Now, if given every possible chance for the virus to circulate, it can happen. in the future, variants that may at least momentarily change the epidemiological picture, as happened with the Ômicron”, says the virologist.